***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.05.2016.-08.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 86 14 0 100 8.0 7.8 9.6 -2.0 17.5 19.5 8.9 10.0 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 87 13 0 100 7.9 7.6 9.5 -1.8 16.2 18.7 8.9 9.8 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 90 10 0 100 9.7 9.4 9.7 -1.9 15.0 17.4 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 80 20 0 100 4.5 4.6 7.1 -1.6 22.2 24.5 5.3 6.3 7.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 82 18 0 100 6.2 6.0 8.0 -1.8 18.4 21.0 7.1 8.2 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 5.5 5.5 5.5 -1.4 23.8 26.1 6.1 7.0 7.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 84 16 0 100 8.0 7.8 9.5 -1.7 17.5 20.0 8.9 9.8 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 80 20 0 100 0.5 0.5 5.6 -1.4 21.0 23.5 1.3 2.2 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 84 16 0 100 7.3 7.3 8.3 -1.5 20.0 22.1 8.1 9.0 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 81 19 0 100 7.7 7.6 6.6 -1.5 19.9 22.4 8.3 9.1 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 79 21 0 100 7.2 7.1 7.8 -1.5 20.9 23.2 7.8 8.6 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 81 19 0 100 5.6 5.6 6.5 -1.6 19.6 22.4 6.3 7.1 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 6.7 6.6 6.7 -1.4 22.1 24.9 7.3 8.1 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 82 18 0 100 8.5 8.3 8.0 -1.5 18.3 20.9 9.1 9.7 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 8.7 8.7 9.0 -1.1 27.1 28.8 9.0 9.9 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 75 25 0 100 8.0 7.8 7.2 -1.5 20.7 23.3 8.6 9.6 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 84 16 0 100 8.6 8.4 9.4 -1.6 17.7 20.4 9.3 10.1 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 80 20 0 100 5.6 5.5 6.0 -1.6 18.3 20.8 6.2 6.9 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 90 10 0 100 8.2 8.0 9.4 -1.9 15.3 17.6 9.1 9.9 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 81 19 0 100 2.6 2.2 4.0 -1.8 16.1 19.2 3.2 4.0 4.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 87 13 0 100 7.2 7.0 9.4 -1.8 17.4 19.8 8.1 9.1 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 89 11 0 100 7.9 7.7 9.4 -1.7 15.6 18.0 8.7 9.4 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 90 10 0 100 8.2 8.0 9.3 -1.8 15.7 17.8 8.9 9.6 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 84 16 0 100 7.9 7.8 8.0 -1.6 17.9 20.2 8.5 9.2 9.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 87 13 0 100 7.7 7.5 8.8 -2.1 17.2 19.4 8.6 9.5 10.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 82 18 0 100 6.5 6.4 5.7 -1.7 18.4 21.2 7.2 8.0 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 85 15 0 100 7.4 7.1 9.3 -2.0 17.5 19.7 8.7 10.1 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 74 26 0 100 6.4 6.4 7.8 -1.4 23.9 26.0 7.0 7.9 8.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 81 19 0 100 4.8 4.5 5.1 -1.6 17.4 20.1 5.6 6.6 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 89 11 0 100 7.8 7.6 9.6 -1.9 16.5 18.6 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------