***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.05.2016.-15.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 12.0 12.8 13.3 1.9 82.5 73.9 9.8 10.8 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 12.3 13.2 13.0 1.8 82.5 74.4 10.0 11.0 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 13.8 14.5 13.3 1.8 81.6 73.8 11.5 12.5 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 9.1 9.6 10.4 1.4 77.6 72.1 6.7 7.7 8.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 10.3 11.0 11.1 1.7 81.3 74.1 8.3 9.2 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 9.2 9.8 8.4 1.5 79.9 73.0 7.4 8.2 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 12.1 13.1 13.1 1.9 83.0 74.3 9.9 10.9 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 4.3 5.0 8.6 1.6 81.5 74.2 2.4 3.3 4.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 11.3 12.0 11.2 1.5 81.5 73.2 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 11.0 11.5 9.6 1.5 80.5 73.1 9.2 10.0 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 10.7 11.2 10.4 1.4 80.2 72.7 8.9 9.7 10.4 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 9.1 9.7 9.4 1.5 81.3 73.5 7.3 8.1 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 10.3 10.8 9.0 1.3 77.7 70.2 8.6 9.4 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 11.7 12.1 10.8 1.3 77.0 70.6 9.8 10.6 11.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 11.9 12.2 11.5 1.1 75.0 69.2 10.2 11.0 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 11.6 12.2 9.8 1.5 80.0 72.9 9.6 10.5 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 12.3 13.1 12.9 1.9 82.8 74.9 10.3 11.2 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 9.5 10.1 9.1 1.5 80.3 73.4 7.5 8.4 9.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 12.1 12.8 12.9 1.8 81.9 74.1 10.0 10.9 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 5.9 6.5 7.0 1.7 82.1 75.1 4.1 4.9 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 11.3 12.0 12.6 1.7 81.3 73.6 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 11.6 12.2 12.7 1.7 81.4 73.9 9.5 10.4 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 11.6 12.3 12.7 1.6 80.9 73.1 9.6 10.5 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 11.2 11.8 11.0 1.5 79.6 72.4 9.3 10.1 11.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 11.6 12.3 12.3 1.9 82.4 74.2 9.5 10.4 11.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 10.2 10.7 8.5 1.4 78.1 71.1 8.3 9.2 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 12.4 13.4 12.9 1.9 83.0 74.2 9.9 11.0 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 10.0 10.3 10.6 1.2 75.5 70.1 8.2 9.1 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 8.6 9.3 8.3 1.5 80.4 73.6 6.5 7.4 8.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 12.2 13.0 13.2 1.9 82.7 74.3 10.0 10.9 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------