***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.05.2016.-22.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 12.4 12.7 13.2 0.6 61.1 58.4 11.2 12.1 13.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 12.4 12.8 13.0 0.7 63.3 60.0 11.2 12.1 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 14.0 14.4 13.3 0.7 63.5 59.9 12.6 13.6 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 9.1 9.5 10.6 0.6 61.4 59.1 7.4 8.7 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 10.9 11.3 10.8 0.7 64.3 61.2 9.9 10.7 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 9.6 10.1 8.8 0.8 66.9 63.1 8.6 9.4 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 12.4 12.9 13.2 0.7 63.4 60.2 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 5.3 5.4 8.9 1.0 70.1 65.0 3.1 4.2 5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 11.7 12.3 11.2 0.8 66.7 62.9 10.7 11.5 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 12.0 12.1 9.8 0.9 68.7 63.9 10.5 11.3 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 11.4 11.9 10.3 0.8 66.9 62.7 10.4 11.2 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 9.9 10.0 9.5 0.9 68.9 64.1 8.4 9.2 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 10.9 11.4 9.0 0.8 65.8 61.8 9.9 10.7 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 12.9 12.8 11.2 0.8 66.2 61.8 11.1 12.0 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 12.4 12.7 11.8 0.6 62.0 59.6 11.5 12.2 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 11.9 12.4 9.7 0.8 65.7 61.8 10.8 11.6 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 12.7 13.2 13.1 0.8 65.3 61.7 11.5 12.4 13.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 10.5 10.6 9.3 0.9 69.4 64.1 8.9 9.7 10.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 12.5 12.9 13.0 0.7 63.4 59.9 11.3 12.2 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 6.5 6.6 7.0 0.9 69.3 64.5 5.0 5.7 6.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 11.7 12.2 12.5 0.8 64.4 60.8 10.6 11.5 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 11.8 12.2 12.8 0.8 65.1 61.3 10.6 11.5 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 12.0 12.3 12.9 0.7 64.4 60.6 10.9 11.7 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 12.2 12.2 11.1 0.8 67.5 62.6 10.6 11.4 12.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 12.1 12.3 11.8 0.6 60.5 58.0 11.1 11.9 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 44 56 100 10.9 11.0 8.8 0.9 68.3 64.1 9.5 10.2 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 12.6 12.9 12.5 0.6 60.5 57.9 11.1 12.2 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 10.5 10.8 11.0 0.7 63.4 60.5 9.6 10.3 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 9.5 9.7 8.6 0.9 69.5 64.2 7.3 8.4 9.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 12.6 13.0 13.1 0.7 62.4 59.3 11.3 12.3 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------