***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.05.2016.-29.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 10.9 12.1 13.6 -0.1 47.4 46.5 11.2 12.3 13.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 11.1 12.1 13.2 -0.2 46.8 46.6 11.3 12.3 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 12.8 13.9 13.6 -0.2 46.7 46.4 13.0 14.1 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 7.2 8.5 11.0 -0.2 46.7 46.1 7.5 8.7 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 9.5 10.7 11.1 -0.1 47.8 47.4 9.8 10.8 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 8.5 9.4 9.1 0.0 49.3 48.7 8.6 9.5 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 11.1 12.2 13.4 -0.1 48.7 47.7 11.3 12.3 13.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 3.0 4.4 9.0 0.0 50.4 49.4 3.3 4.4 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 10.4 11.6 11.5 -0.1 48.7 48.2 10.6 11.6 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 10.2 11.5 10.0 0.0 49.0 48.4 10.5 11.5 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 10.1 11.3 10.6 0.0 49.3 48.2 10.4 11.4 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 8.3 9.6 9.8 0.0 50.5 49.3 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 9.7 10.7 9.3 -0.1 48.6 48.1 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.8 12.1 11.3 -0.2 45.6 45.9 11.4 12.4 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 11.3 12.3 12.3 -0.2 46.4 45.7 11.5 12.5 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 10.5 11.8 10.1 0.0 49.4 48.4 10.8 11.8 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 11.3 12.4 13.1 -0.1 47.6 47.1 11.6 12.6 13.5 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 8.8 10.0 9.4 -0.1 48.4 48.2 9.1 10.1 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 11.1 12.1 13.2 -0.2 45.9 46.0 11.3 12.3 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 4.9 6.1 7.0 0.0 49.2 49.1 5.1 6.1 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 10.4 11.5 12.8 -0.1 47.5 47.1 10.7 11.6 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 10.7 11.6 12.9 -0.2 45.9 45.9 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 10.9 11.7 13.0 -0.2 46.0 46.1 11.0 12.0 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 10.5 11.6 11.2 -0.2 46.8 46.8 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 10.7 11.8 12.1 -0.2 46.9 46.4 11.0 12.0 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.7 10.4 9.1 0.1 51.9 50.6 9.3 10.3 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 11.0 12.2 12.9 -0.1 47.4 46.6 11.3 12.3 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 9.5 10.5 11.3 -0.2 46.8 46.1 9.7 10.6 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 7.4 8.5 8.6 -0.1 48.0 48.0 7.6 8.7 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 11.3 12.3 13.4 -0.2 47.1 46.6 11.4 12.5 13.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------