***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.05.2016.-29.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 10.5 11.4 12.4 0.1 53.3 51.1 10.7 11.3 11.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 11.5 11.5 12.2 0.1 54.9 52.9 10.7 11.3 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 12.2 13.1 12.5 0.1 53.1 51.0 12.4 13.0 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 8.2 8.0 9.8 0.1 52.4 51.0 7.2 7.9 8.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 9.1 9.9 10.3 0.1 54.6 52.7 9.2 9.7 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.7 8.7 7.9 0.2 57.6 55.2 8.0 8.5 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 11.5 11.5 12.3 0.2 56.6 53.7 10.7 11.3 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 3.7 3.8 8.0 0.3 60.1 56.6 2.9 3.5 4.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.8 10.8 10.6 0.2 57.6 54.8 10.1 10.5 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 10.7 10.7 9.0 0.2 57.9 55.0 10.0 10.5 10.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.4 10.4 9.8 0.2 56.9 54.3 9.8 10.2 10.7 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.7 8.7 8.8 0.2 58.2 55.2 8.0 8.5 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.9 9.9 8.5 0.1 55.2 53.5 9.2 9.7 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 11.4 11.3 10.3 0.1 53.2 51.7 10.7 11.2 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 11.6 11.5 11.2 0.1 53.5 51.8 10.9 11.4 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 11.1 11.1 9.2 0.2 56.0 53.9 10.3 10.9 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.8 12.1 0.2 58.1 55.2 11.0 11.6 12.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.0 9.0 8.4 0.2 56.9 54.4 8.2 8.8 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 11.6 11.4 12.1 0.1 53.3 51.8 10.8 11.3 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 5.4 5.4 6.2 0.2 57.3 54.7 4.7 5.2 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 10.0 10.7 11.9 0.1 54.7 52.3 10.1 10.6 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 11.0 10.9 11.9 0.1 54.5 52.8 10.3 10.8 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 11.2 11.0 12.0 0.1 53.2 51.5 10.4 10.9 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.7 10.3 0.1 55.0 52.9 10.1 10.6 11.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 10.3 11.0 11.2 0.1 51.9 50.1 10.4 11.0 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.6 9.6 8.0 0.2 56.1 53.8 8.9 9.4 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 10.6 11.5 11.9 0.1 52.9 50.7 10.8 11.4 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.7 9.5 10.2 0.1 52.7 51.3 9.0 9.5 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 8.0 8.0 7.7 0.2 56.5 54.3 7.2 7.8 8.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 11.7 11.6 12.3 0.1 54.3 52.1 10.9 11.4 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------