***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.05.2016.-08.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 79 21 0 100 19.6 18.4 18.3 -2.9 12.4 18.8 20.8 22.2 23.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 73 27 0 100 19.7 18.7 18.7 -2.6 15.0 21.6 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Becej 27400G00 82 18 0 100 19.7 18.2 18.1 -3.4 9.9 16.4 20.9 22.3 23.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 84 16 0 100 12.2 10.9 14.7 -3.4 10.1 15.9 13.4 14.8 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 87 13 0 100 19.6 17.7 15.7 -3.9 6.9 12.8 20.9 22.2 23.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 92 8 0 100 17.7 15.9 13.2 -4.2 6.9 11.5 19.3 20.7 22.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 19.6 18.8 18.8 -2.4 16.6 23.2 20.4 21.8 23.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 95 5 0 100 6.6 4.5 13.3 -4.3 5.6 10.7 8.3 9.7 11.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 86 14 0 100 19.1 17.1 16.8 -3.8 7.0 13.3 20.3 21.7 23.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 90 10 0 100 19.0 17.1 14.6 -4.1 6.3 12.3 20.4 21.7 22.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 92 8 0 100 19.0 16.9 15.8 -4.3 5.7 11.2 20.5 21.9 23.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 95 5 0 100 17.9 15.8 14.3 -4.3 5.3 10.1 19.5 20.9 22.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 96 4 0 100 18.7 16.3 15.1 -4.4 4.6 9.5 20.4 21.8 23.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 77 23 0 100 19.6 17.9 16.8 -3.5 9.5 16.7 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 86 14 0 100 19.5 18.6 17.5 -3.1 11.4 16.4 20.7 21.9 23.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 93 7 0 100 19.4 17.3 15.2 -4.3 5.5 10.7 21.0 22.4 23.7 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 19.3 18.7 18.8 -2.0 20.1 26.7 19.9 21.3 22.6 30 Palic 37000G16 89 11 0 100 18.4 16.5 13.8 -4.1 6.6 12.7 19.7 21.1 22.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 78 22 0 100 19.2 18.0 18.4 -2.9 12.5 19.1 20.3 21.7 23.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 96 4 0 100 13.1 10.9 11.5 -4.4 5.2 10.2 14.7 16.1 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 85 15 0 100 19.4 17.7 17.8 -3.7 8.0 14.4 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 19.7 18.7 18.5 -2.4 16.3 23.2 20.5 21.9 23.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 80 20 0 100 19.5 18.1 18.1 -3.1 10.7 17.7 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 85 15 0 100 19.1 17.3 16.4 -3.8 7.8 14.5 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 80 20 0 100 19.6 18.4 17.0 -3.2 11.2 17.3 20.7 21.9 23.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 98 2 0 100 18.0 16.0 13.4 -4.3 5.1 9.3 19.7 21.0 22.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 78 22 0 100 19.6 18.5 17.8 -2.9 12.4 18.6 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 87 13 0 100 19.5 18.1 15.6 -3.5 9.2 14.4 20.7 22.0 23.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 93 7 0 100 13.0 11.0 13.1 -4.2 6.0 11.8 14.6 16.0 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 77 23 0 100 19.5 18.5 18.6 -2.8 13.3 19.9 20.6 21.9 23.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------