***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.05.2016.-15.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 24.9 25.2 22.8 1.9 73.3 68.9 22.0 23.3 24.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 25.0 25.6 23.1 2.2 76.0 70.5 21.9 23.3 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 25.0 25.4 23.0 2.0 73.9 69.2 22.1 23.4 24.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 17.4 17.6 19.7 1.5 70.2 66.1 14.7 16.0 17.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 24.9 25.4 21.1 2.0 73.7 69.1 22.1 23.4 24.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 23.4 23.9 18.9 2.1 75.1 70.0 20.6 21.9 23.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 24.5 25.1 23.2 2.3 77.6 71.8 21.5 22.8 24.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 12.7 13.3 19.3 2.3 75.8 70.3 10.0 11.3 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 24.4 24.8 21.8 2.1 74.7 69.9 21.5 22.8 24.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 24.1 24.6 20.3 2.3 75.8 70.6 21.3 22.6 23.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 24.4 24.8 21.2 2.1 74.9 69.9 21.5 22.8 24.1 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 23.5 24.0 20.2 2.1 75.0 69.6 20.9 22.1 23.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 24.5 25.0 20.4 2.2 75.2 70.1 21.8 23.0 24.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 24.9 25.4 21.8 2.3 76.2 70.9 22.0 23.3 24.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 44 56 100 24.6 24.6 21.4 1.3 67.8 64.2 21.9 23.3 24.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 25.2 25.6 20.6 2.1 74.9 69.8 22.2 23.6 24.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 24.1 25.1 23.3 2.6 80.5 73.8 21.1 22.5 23.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 23.7 24.4 19.7 2.4 76.4 71.1 21.0 22.3 23.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 24.4 24.8 23.0 2.1 74.7 69.6 21.5 22.8 24.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 18.9 19.6 17.4 2.5 77.0 71.0 16.2 17.5 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 24.6 25.0 22.6 2.0 73.8 69.2 21.7 23.1 24.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 24.8 25.5 23.0 2.4 78.0 72.1 21.7 23.1 24.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 24.8 25.3 22.9 2.1 74.8 69.9 21.9 23.3 24.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 24.2 24.7 21.7 2.3 75.8 70.8 21.4 22.7 23.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 24.6 24.8 21.4 1.8 72.6 68.5 21.8 23.1 24.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 23.9 24.4 19.3 2.1 75.6 70.4 21.2 22.5 23.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 24.5 24.8 22.2 1.9 74.1 69.5 21.6 22.9 24.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 44 56 100 24.5 24.7 20.4 1.4 69.1 65.2 21.9 23.2 24.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 18.8 19.6 19.0 2.5 77.2 71.5 16.1 17.4 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 24.7 25.1 23.0 2.1 74.9 69.9 21.7 23.1 24.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------