***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.05.2016.-29.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 22.5 23.6 22.9 -0.6 41.8 43.2 22.8 24.3 25.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 23.0 24.0 22.8 -0.6 42.1 43.7 23.4 24.6 25.7 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 22.9 23.8 23.0 -0.6 41.1 42.9 23.2 24.5 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 15.3 16.3 20.7 -0.6 41.4 43.1 15.5 17.0 18.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 22.8 23.8 21.2 -0.6 42.3 44.1 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 21.0 22.3 19.1 -0.5 44.0 45.3 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 22.5 23.6 22.9 -0.5 42.9 44.2 22.8 24.1 25.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 12.9 11.7 19.4 -0.5 43.3 44.9 10.7 12.2 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 22.2 23.3 21.4 -0.5 42.5 44.3 22.5 23.9 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 24.4 23.2 20.1 -0.6 42.6 44.5 22.4 23.7 25.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 22.5 23.6 20.9 -0.5 43.3 44.9 22.7 24.1 25.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 23.5 22.4 20.5 -0.5 43.9 45.3 21.5 22.9 24.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 22.3 23.5 19.8 -0.5 44.1 45.4 22.6 24.0 25.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 22.7 23.6 20.9 -0.8 39.2 42.1 23.1 24.4 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 23.2 24.0 21.6 -0.6 40.5 42.1 23.4 24.7 26.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 22.9 24.1 20.5 -0.5 43.5 45.0 23.2 24.6 26.0 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 22.2 23.5 22.8 -0.4 43.9 45.1 22.6 23.9 25.2 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 21.5 22.6 19.5 -0.7 41.1 43.5 21.9 23.3 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 22.5 23.5 22.8 -0.7 40.8 42.9 22.9 24.1 25.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 16.6 17.7 17.0 -0.7 41.7 43.8 16.9 18.4 19.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 22.5 23.5 22.4 -0.6 41.6 43.5 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 22.7 23.9 22.6 -0.5 42.2 43.9 23.2 24.5 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 22.8 23.7 22.6 -0.7 39.8 42.2 23.2 24.5 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 22.2 23.1 21.0 -0.7 40.3 42.9 22.5 23.8 25.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 24.8 23.5 21.2 -0.6 40.9 42.6 22.9 24.2 25.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 23.9 23.1 20.0 -0.2 47.2 47.5 22.0 23.4 24.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 22.4 23.3 22.1 -0.6 41.4 42.9 22.7 24.0 25.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 23.1 24.0 20.9 -0.6 41.2 42.8 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 16.6 17.6 18.5 -0.7 40.4 42.9 16.9 18.4 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 22.8 23.8 22.8 -0.6 41.7 43.4 23.1 24.4 25.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------