***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.05.2016.-29.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 21.8 22.9 21.7 -0.2 44.2 44.4 22.2 23.3 24.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 22.2 23.4 21.9 0.0 48.8 47.7 22.5 23.5 24.4 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 22.2 23.1 21.8 -0.4 41.8 43.0 22.6 23.5 24.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 14.9 15.5 18.9 -0.5 38.1 40.2 15.3 16.1 17.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 22.2 22.9 19.8 -0.5 37.7 40.3 22.7 23.6 24.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 20.8 21.5 17.5 -0.5 38.7 41.0 21.2 22.0 22.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 21.9 23.2 22.0 0.1 51.6 49.5 22.1 23.1 24.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 10.0 10.8 17.9 -0.5 39.5 41.6 10.5 11.4 12.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 21.6 22.4 20.3 -0.5 39.1 41.3 22.1 23.0 23.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 21.6 22.4 18.8 -0.5 39.4 41.5 22.0 22.9 23.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 21.8 22.5 19.7 -0.5 37.8 40.5 22.3 23.1 23.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 21.0 21.7 18.9 -0.5 39.0 41.2 21.4 22.2 22.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 22.0 22.7 18.8 -0.5 38.2 40.8 22.4 23.2 24.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 22.0 22.9 20.2 -0.4 41.5 43.1 22.4 23.4 24.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 22.4 22.9 20.5 -0.5 36.9 39.3 22.7 23.6 24.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 22.4 23.2 19.2 -0.5 37.9 40.6 22.9 23.8 24.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 23.2 23.1 22.0 0.3 56.4 53.0 21.8 22.8 23.7 29 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 21.2 22.0 18.2 -0.5 39.8 41.9 21.6 22.4 23.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 21.8 22.8 21.8 -0.2 45.3 45.4 22.1 23.0 23.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 16.3 17.0 15.8 -0.5 39.9 41.8 16.7 17.6 18.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 21.8 22.7 21.3 -0.5 39.2 41.2 22.3 23.3 24.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 22.1 23.4 21.7 0.1 51.3 49.6 22.3 23.3 24.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 22.1 23.0 21.6 -0.3 43.0 44.0 22.4 23.4 24.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 21.5 22.4 20.1 -0.4 40.1 42.1 22.0 22.9 23.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 21.9 22.8 20.2 -0.4 40.9 42.2 22.3 23.3 24.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 21.4 22.2 18.1 -0.4 41.9 43.0 21.7 22.5 23.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 21.9 22.8 21.1 -0.2 44.3 44.4 22.2 23.1 23.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 22.3 22.9 19.4 -0.6 36.4 39.1 22.7 23.5 24.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 16.2 16.9 17.3 -0.5 39.6 41.7 16.6 17.5 18.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 22.0 23.1 21.8 -0.1 46.6 46.1 22.3 23.3 24.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------