***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.05.2016.-08.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 3.9 10.5 18.2 111.8 66.4 52.3 3.7 6.5 10.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 9.8 10.1 14.2 91.0 58.5 47.5 4.4 7.8 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 8.8 13.5 20.0 125.8 71.1 57.3 3.5 6.8 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 23.0 28.7 28.1 150.1 78.2 68.3 7.4 13.0 20.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 16.0 22.5 29.8 172.6 83.0 71.5 4.2 7.9 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 19.3 25.8 31.1 162.0 82.3 75.5 5.4 9.8 15.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 4.9 10.3 13.9 90.3 57.5 45.6 4.8 8.3 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 16 84 100 39.0 59.6 40.6 194.3 87.8 80.6 11.2 19.4 30.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 17.1 25.1 29.2 171.6 83.2 71.3 3.8 7.7 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 19 81 100 21.0 31.7 39.6 189.7 86.9 78.0 5.9 10.4 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 19.5 31.9 34.0 202.5 88.0 79.4 4.6 8.9 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 15 85 100 22.0 32.5 33.6 199.0 87.8 80.7 7.0 11.7 17.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 15 85 100 18.2 33.2 36.9 230.7 91.6 83.6 4.9 8.8 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 21.4 27.4 30.1 148.7 77.9 63.0 6.3 11.7 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 13.2 15.9 24.0 149.4 76.8 67.0 3.8 7.1 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 16.0 23.2 31.4 194.5 86.2 78.1 5.1 8.6 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 12.0 10.0 12.5 82.3 54.1 44.3 4.2 8.7 15.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 22.6 32.5 38.5 175.8 84.3 75.3 6.6 11.6 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 12.4 13.7 15.4 100.2 62.1 49.9 4.8 9.2 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 21.8 37.3 44.9 214.4 91.3 83.3 6.8 11.3 17.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 13.6 17.7 25.0 152.7 78.7 65.9 4.2 7.6 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 10.7 10.0 13.3 87.2 56.0 45.9 5.2 8.6 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 13.0 17.5 18.1 117.2 68.4 54.1 5.2 9.8 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 19.3 26.5 29.3 154.0 79.4 66.8 5.8 10.6 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.7 17.5 23.9 136.8 74.4 59.7 4.1 8.1 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 11 89 100 17.2 25.9 32.6 202.3 87.8 82.0 4.5 8.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.4 12.6 19.2 113.4 66.6 52.6 4.1 7.6 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 14.4 19.5 28.8 166.2 81.6 72.1 4.2 7.6 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 23 77 100 26.6 38.4 39.2 178.7 85.0 76.1 7.6 13.5 21.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 9.6 10.6 15.4 99.3 61.8 49.7 3.7 7.1 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------