***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.05.2016.-22.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 19.8 18.7 14.8 86.3 56.1 46.5 9.8 16.1 24.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 6.2 13.1 13.9 87.2 58.1 45.8 5.9 10.5 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 8.5 17.7 15.0 88.3 57.4 45.3 8.7 14.5 22.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 8.1 16.3 16.1 83.7 54.7 42.0 8.4 14.3 22.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 7.8 17.1 14.9 79.1 52.9 39.0 8.3 15.5 25.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 6.9 14.1 18.7 91.5 57.3 47.5 6.6 11.4 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 13.0 12.2 13.5 85.6 57.4 45.5 5.4 9.8 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 12.2 23.1 17.0 87.6 55.9 42.4 13.1 20.4 29.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 6.5 13.3 15.8 81.5 54.5 39.9 7.0 11.7 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 7.9 16.5 18.1 85.2 55.3 41.1 8.9 14.4 21.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 5.1 12.6 14.3 86.3 56.3 40.5 5.6 10.4 17.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 6.0 12.3 14.9 88.4 56.6 43.1 6.1 10.3 15.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 5.9 11.4 16.3 86.4 55.6 44.0 5.7 9.7 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 8.5 21.3 21.7 100.1 62.3 46.9 7.9 14.5 23.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 3.9 9.6 14.5 87.0 57.9 43.3 3.9 7.4 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 7.1 14.9 15.2 86.4 56.4 42.5 7.5 12.6 19.3 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 5.3 9.9 12.5 77.3 54.3 44.1 4.8 8.8 14.0 29 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 8.2 17.5 20.5 87.8 56.2 43.0 9.1 14.9 22.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 8.2 19.3 15.2 93.1 60.4 46.8 8.2 14.4 22.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 8.3 16.2 19.2 87.5 54.8 42.9 9.1 14.4 21.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 7.1 13.1 13.9 73.7 51.0 39.3 7.3 12.6 19.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 6.4 13.9 14.8 85.6 58.3 46.9 6.7 11.2 16.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 7.0 17.6 17.0 103.2 64.3 48.4 7.3 12.1 18.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 8.7 18.3 18.6 90.7 58.4 44.4 9.1 14.9 22.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 8.8 15.4 16.2 81.6 53.7 44.2 8.5 14.1 21.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 4.9 12.4 15.7 96.8 61.0 46.6 4.5 8.6 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 18.4 17.8 16.6 89.3 57.4 47.2 8.3 14.3 22.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 5.3 11.6 15.9 87.8 57.3 43.1 5.8 9.5 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 12.5 23.3 20.7 91.7 57.8 44.4 13.5 20.0 27.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 8.0 17.3 14.6 92.5 59.8 47.4 7.9 13.3 20.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------