***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.05.2016.-29.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 8.2 9.8 15.8 106.9 64.7 51.5 3.6 6.3 10.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.8 13.5 14.6 105.4 64.7 50.0 4.4 8.4 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.4 11.5 16.7 107.1 65.5 53.0 4.0 7.2 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.1 17.3 18.1 114.9 67.8 55.6 5.2 9.8 16.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 11.2 14.9 18.2 119.1 69.2 56.6 5.3 9.0 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 13.7 17.0 19.8 110.1 65.7 54.2 5.9 10.7 17.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 9.0 11.4 14.7 109.4 66.2 51.0 3.2 6.5 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 26.1 32.6 19.5 115.7 67.8 56.8 13.3 21.3 31.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 10.5 14.3 19.8 119.8 69.5 56.4 4.6 8.2 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 14.9 19.3 21.6 116.9 68.3 56.8 7.1 11.9 18.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 12.5 16.6 16.5 118.4 69.0 56.6 6.0 10.1 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 13.2 17.5 16.3 116.1 68.1 56.3 5.6 10.2 16.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 12.6 17.1 18.0 115.3 67.9 54.8 4.6 9.3 16.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 15.0 18.7 21.4 111.3 66.3 54.4 6.9 11.9 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 4.9 15.2 15.7 111.6 67.3 52.9 4.3 8.5 14.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 12.5 15.8 16.7 114.0 67.5 55.3 6.3 10.2 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.5 10.6 13.9 103.3 64.3 49.2 3.2 6.4 11.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 14.3 17.3 23.0 111.8 66.3 55.6 7.3 11.7 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.0 10.7 15.2 105.4 64.7 51.0 3.7 6.8 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 15.0 18.3 22.1 112.8 66.5 55.5 7.5 12.1 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.4 11.6 18.3 118.4 69.2 56.1 3.4 6.3 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 13.1 14.4 13.8 98.8 62.7 50.3 5.2 9.8 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.5 9.8 16.6 108.6 65.8 52.5 3.3 6.1 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 13.8 17.1 20.8 112.5 66.9 55.3 6.7 11.1 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.6 11.2 18.9 117.4 68.5 56.1 3.9 6.7 10.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 12.9 18.7 17.0 125.5 71.3 55.8 5.2 9.7 15.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 8.8 10.6 17.1 107.7 65.1 52.9 3.4 6.6 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 11.9 14.5 16.7 108.1 65.9 54.2 5.3 9.3 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 23.0 26.5 22.2 108.7 65.1 54.9 13.8 19.9 27.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 3.4 9.9 14.9 106.4 65.1 50.5 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------