***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.05.2016.-29.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 54.0 49.8 64.9 96.7 52.5 47.4 36.2 47.8 60.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 32.7 43.7 56.2 91.1 49.0 44.3 33.5 44.6 56.8 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 34.3 52.6 67.6 100.6 56.2 50.1 34.9 47.6 61.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 50.3 78.5 80.2 108.5 63.0 55.4 51.1 65.7 81.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 37.7 69.8 80.2 111.5 65.6 55.8 38.7 53.6 70.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 61.7 69.6 90.0 111.6 65.7 58.5 44.0 56.3 69.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 28.1 41.7 55.4 92.1 49.6 44.3 30.0 42.0 55.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 120.3 122.4 92.5 118.4 71.3 63.0 79.5 96.8 114.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 34.0 61.2 83.1 111.6 65.9 55.1 34.9 47.3 61.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 80.5 80.1 96.6 116.0 69.8 60.0 48.7 61.7 76.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 65.2 66.1 81.6 117.9 70.7 61.5 35.6 47.9 61.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 68.5 70.2 80.4 118.9 70.7 62.9 38.4 50.9 65.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 60.9 62.1 87.4 119.4 70.7 62.9 35.3 46.0 57.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 72.3 77.6 92.2 108.3 63.0 54.0 47.8 63.5 81.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 32.4 54.0 73.4 111.9 65.2 56.3 33.9 43.8 54.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 53.9 61.8 80.3 115.0 67.9 59.8 37.8 48.6 60.3 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 29.7 38.6 51.4 84.9 44.2 41.1 30.2 43.4 58.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 71.8 80.3 101.5 113.4 67.6 58.9 51.8 64.8 78.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 40.7 55.4 59.5 93.6 50.9 45.8 41.7 54.4 68.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 76.7 80.3 103.0 120.0 72.7 63.9 49.8 61.5 73.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 33.6 53.7 74.1 104.9 59.9 51.6 34.4 45.9 58.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 35.3 45.7 53.9 86.6 46.0 42.9 36.5 48.6 62.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 31.3 49.9 66.6 100.2 56.1 49.0 32.6 44.9 59.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 46.7 73.5 87.2 108.0 63.0 54.9 47.7 61.4 76.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 56.3 57.4 78.2 104.0 59.3 51.7 36.6 49.4 63.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 63.1 65.7 83.1 125.6 73.7 66.5 35.4 46.3 58.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 57.8 54.4 70.7 98.4 54.4 48.6 38.8 51.2 64.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 50.9 56.0 79.4 112.0 65.4 57.4 36.0 45.8 56.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 90.3 100.3 101.5 114.5 68.5 59.7 71.1 84.2 97.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 32.7 47.8 59.0 94.9 51.7 46.5 34.4 46.5 60.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------