***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.05.2021.-09.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 10.2 9.8 11.2 -0.1 48.5 49.0 8.9 9.9 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 10.1 9.0 10.2 -0.8 37.4 38.7 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 11.8 11.4 11.1 -0.2 47.6 48.0 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 6.7 6.6 8.7 0.3 54.2 53.9 5.4 6.4 7.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 8.5 8.4 9.5 0.2 52.8 52.8 7.0 8.2 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 7.3 7.8 7.4 0.8 63.6 62.5 6.1 7.1 7.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 10.1 9.1 10.2 -0.8 37.5 38.7 8.9 9.8 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 2.4 2.1 6.4 0.0 49.5 49.7 1.2 2.2 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 9.2 8.9 9.3 -0.2 47.3 47.9 8.1 9.0 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 9.3 8.9 7.3 -0.2 46.5 47.1 8.3 9.1 9.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 8.9 8.6 8.8 0.0 49.3 49.6 7.8 8.7 9.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 7.4 7.4 7.8 0.3 54.2 54.0 6.4 7.2 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 8.4 8.4 8.1 0.3 55.1 54.7 7.3 8.2 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 9.9 9.4 8.6 -0.4 43.1 43.9 9.0 9.7 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 10.2 9.9 10.1 -0.1 47.9 48.3 9.1 10.0 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 9.8 9.9 8.8 0.4 56.4 56.1 8.5 9.5 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 10.4 9.5 9.8 -0.9 35.8 37.1 9.3 10.1 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 87 13 100 7.2 7.0 6.9 0.0 50.5 50.6 6.3 7.0 7.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 10.1 9.3 10.3 -0.7 38.1 39.2 9.0 9.9 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 4.2 4.2 5.2 0.2 53.5 53.3 3.2 4.0 4.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 9.3 9.1 10.7 0.0 50.3 50.6 8.1 9.1 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 9.7 8.7 10.0 -0.9 35.1 36.3 8.6 9.4 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 9.8 9.1 10.2 -0.7 39.1 40.2 8.8 9.6 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 9.4 9.1 8.9 -0.1 47.6 47.9 8.5 9.2 9.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 9.8 9.5 10.5 0.0 50.3 50.6 8.5 9.5 10.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 8.2 8.6 7.7 0.8 62.8 61.8 7.2 8.0 8.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 10.5 10.0 10.9 -0.1 49.1 49.5 8.7 10.1 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 8.2 8.1 9.3 0.3 54.3 54.1 6.9 7.9 8.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 6.8 6.4 6.0 -0.1 47.7 48.0 5.6 6.5 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 10.2 9.4 10.7 -0.6 40.4 41.4 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------