***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.05.2021.-16.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 12.0 12.5 13.8 2.0 78.7 70.9 10.2 11.0 11.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 12.3 12.5 13.2 1.6 74.4 67.2 10.4 11.2 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 13.8 14.2 13.6 1.7 76.3 69.4 11.9 12.8 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 9.1 9.3 10.4 1.4 72.2 67.4 6.9 7.9 8.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 10.5 10.8 11.2 1.5 75.1 69.4 8.7 9.5 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 9.4 9.7 8.7 1.6 77.2 71.9 7.7 8.5 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 12.0 12.3 13.2 1.5 74.0 66.9 10.2 11.1 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 4.5 4.9 8.8 1.7 78.6 71.9 2.7 3.5 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 11.3 11.7 11.3 1.6 76.8 70.3 9.5 10.3 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 11.1 11.4 9.5 1.5 76.8 70.6 9.5 10.2 10.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 11.0 11.2 10.5 1.4 75.4 69.5 9.3 10.1 10.8 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 9.2 9.6 9.7 1.7 77.7 71.5 7.5 8.3 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 10.5 10.7 9.1 1.2 72.1 67.2 8.9 9.7 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 11.6 11.8 10.8 1.2 72.2 66.8 10.1 10.8 11.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 12.0 12.2 11.7 1.2 71.0 66.5 10.4 11.2 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 11.7 11.9 9.9 1.3 73.2 68.1 10.0 10.8 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 12.3 12.5 13.0 1.6 74.5 67.0 10.6 11.3 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 9.5 9.9 8.9 1.5 76.4 70.8 7.9 8.6 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 12.1 12.3 13.2 1.5 74.0 67.0 10.4 11.2 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 6.0 6.4 7.2 1.8 79.6 73.5 4.3 5.0 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 11.4 11.7 12.7 1.7 77.2 70.3 9.6 10.4 11.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 11.5 11.7 12.9 1.4 73.5 66.3 9.8 10.6 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 11.6 11.8 12.9 1.4 73.4 67.0 10.0 10.7 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 11.2 11.5 10.9 1.4 74.4 68.9 9.6 10.3 11.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 11.7 12.0 12.5 1.8 76.9 70.2 9.9 10.7 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 10.4 10.7 8.8 1.6 75.7 70.8 8.7 9.5 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 12.5 13.0 13.2 1.9 77.7 70.5 10.3 11.3 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 10.1 10.3 10.7 1.3 71.7 67.1 8.5 9.3 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 8.7 9.1 8.2 1.5 77.2 71.5 6.8 7.7 8.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 12.1 12.4 13.5 1.6 75.0 67.8 10.3 11.1 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------