***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.05.2021.-23.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 12.6 12.2 13.0 0.0 49.5 50.6 11.4 12.2 13.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 12.4 11.9 12.7 -0.2 46.7 48.8 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 14.1 13.6 13.1 0.0 49.2 50.4 12.7 13.7 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 7.2 8.4 10.1 -0.3 45.2 47.8 7.5 8.7 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.1 10.6 10.3 -0.1 47.3 49.1 10.0 10.8 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 8.7 9.4 8.2 -0.1 47.8 49.0 8.8 9.5 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 12.5 11.9 12.6 -0.3 44.9 47.6 11.3 12.2 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 4.6 4.1 8.1 -0.1 47.3 49.0 3.3 4.2 5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.6 10.6 0.0 49.6 50.6 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 11.7 11.3 9.0 0.0 49.2 50.3 10.6 11.3 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 10.4 11.1 9.6 -0.2 45.6 47.9 10.5 11.2 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.2 8.8 -0.2 45.9 48.0 8.6 9.3 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 9.9 10.6 8.3 -0.2 45.7 47.5 10.1 10.8 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.0 10.5 -0.1 47.2 49.1 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 11.4 12.2 11.4 -0.2 45.7 47.6 11.6 12.4 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 10.7 11.5 9.0 -0.3 44.7 47.0 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 12.8 12.3 12.5 -0.1 47.6 49.6 11.6 12.4 13.2 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 9.0 9.8 8.2 0.0 49.4 50.2 9.1 9.9 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 12.6 12.1 12.7 -0.2 47.3 49.1 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 6.2 5.8 6.1 -0.1 47.9 49.3 5.2 5.9 6.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.9 11.6 12.1 0.1 51.1 51.7 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.5 12.4 -0.1 48.1 49.7 10.8 11.5 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 12.1 11.7 12.5 -0.2 47.1 48.9 11.0 11.8 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.8 11.4 10.2 -0.1 48.1 49.6 10.8 11.5 12.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 12.3 11.9 11.4 -0.1 49.0 50.4 11.2 12.0 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.6 10.2 8.1 -0.1 47.6 48.7 9.6 10.3 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.7 12.3 12.3 0.0 49.3 50.5 11.3 12.3 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 9.6 10.3 10.4 -0.2 45.5 47.6 9.8 10.5 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 7.1 8.3 7.6 -0.1 48.3 49.5 7.4 8.4 9.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 12.7 12.2 12.8 -0.2 46.1 48.3 11.4 12.4 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------