***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.05.2021.-30.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 12.1 11.8 13.0 0.5 62.2 58.6 10.8 11.4 11.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 10.7 11.5 12.4 0.1 53.0 52.4 10.8 11.4 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 13.3 13.4 12.9 0.4 60.4 57.6 12.4 13.0 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 8.2 8.3 10.1 0.3 59.3 57.5 7.3 8.0 8.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 9.2 10.2 10.6 0.4 60.4 58.1 9.3 9.8 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 9.2 9.2 8.4 0.6 67.0 63.6 8.1 8.6 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 10.7 11.4 12.4 0.1 51.6 51.4 10.8 11.4 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 2.9 3.9 8.1 0.3 59.6 57.2 3.0 3.6 4.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 10.1 10.9 10.7 0.3 59.9 57.5 10.2 10.7 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 10.0 10.8 8.9 0.3 58.8 56.6 10.1 10.6 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 9.8 10.6 9.9 0.2 57.3 55.9 9.9 10.4 10.8 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 8.8 8.9 9.1 0.4 61.2 58.7 8.1 8.6 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 10.0 10.1 8.7 0.3 59.4 57.6 9.4 9.9 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 10.7 11.4 10.3 0.2 54.8 54.0 10.8 11.3 11.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 11.7 11.7 11.5 0.2 56.6 55.4 11.0 11.5 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 11.2 11.3 9.5 0.3 59.9 58.0 10.4 11.0 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 11.0 11.7 12.2 0.1 52.7 52.3 11.1 11.6 12.2 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 8.3 9.2 8.3 0.3 60.7 58.1 8.4 8.9 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 10.8 11.5 12.4 0.1 53.7 52.9 10.9 11.4 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 5.5 5.6 6.3 0.4 62.3 59.3 4.8 5.3 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 10.1 11.1 12.1 0.5 62.8 59.4 10.2 10.7 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 11.1 10.9 12.1 0.1 52.7 52.3 10.3 10.9 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 10.4 11.1 12.3 0.1 54.1 53.3 10.5 11.0 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 10.1 10.9 10.3 0.3 58.1 56.5 10.2 10.7 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 10.4 11.4 11.7 0.4 61.8 58.5 10.5 11.1 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 10.0 10.0 8.5 0.6 66.3 63.2 9.0 9.5 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 12.3 12.0 12.4 0.5 62.1 58.5 10.8 11.5 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 9.8 9.9 10.5 0.3 59.7 57.8 9.1 9.6 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.2 8.2 7.5 0.3 58.9 56.6 7.3 7.9 8.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 10.8 11.6 12.7 0.2 54.5 53.4 10.9 11.5 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------