***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.05.2021.-16.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 24.9 25.7 24.3 2.4 77.5 68.8 22.1 23.4 24.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 25.2 25.5 24.1 2.1 73.2 65.4 22.2 23.6 24.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 25.2 25.7 24.4 2.4 75.5 67.3 22.3 23.6 24.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 17.7 18.2 20.9 2.2 74.8 68.5 14.9 16.2 17.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 25.1 25.7 22.3 2.4 75.6 68.5 22.3 23.6 24.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 23.9 24.5 20.1 2.7 78.5 71.8 20.9 22.2 23.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 24.6 24.7 23.8 1.9 71.9 64.7 21.8 23.0 24.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 12.9 13.5 20.6 2.6 76.7 69.5 10.3 11.5 12.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 24.6 25.1 22.9 2.4 75.2 68.0 21.7 23.0 24.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 24.2 24.8 21.4 2.5 76.0 68.6 21.5 22.8 23.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 24.6 25.1 22.6 2.5 75.5 68.7 21.8 23.1 24.3 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 23.8 24.2 21.7 2.5 75.3 68.9 21.2 22.4 23.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 24.8 25.2 21.7 2.4 74.6 68.5 22.1 23.3 24.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 25.0 25.3 22.5 2.1 73.5 65.5 22.1 23.5 24.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 25.0 25.4 23.0 2.2 74.5 68.9 22.1 23.4 24.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 25.5 25.9 21.9 2.4 74.7 68.5 22.5 23.9 25.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 24.3 24.6 23.9 2.1 73.7 65.8 21.3 22.7 23.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 23.9 24.5 20.7 2.5 76.0 67.9 21.2 22.5 23.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 24.6 24.9 24.2 2.1 73.4 65.5 21.8 23.1 24.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 19.1 19.9 18.6 2.8 78.6 70.2 16.4 17.7 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 24.8 25.5 24.0 2.5 77.3 69.2 21.9 23.3 24.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 25.0 25.3 23.8 2.1 73.9 65.8 22.0 23.3 24.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 25.0 25.3 24.1 2.1 73.0 65.3 22.2 23.5 24.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 24.4 24.8 22.5 2.3 74.4 66.5 21.7 22.9 24.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 24.7 25.3 22.6 2.3 75.9 68.5 22.0 23.2 24.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 24.3 24.7 21.0 2.6 76.3 70.4 21.5 22.7 23.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 24.5 25.2 23.5 2.3 76.9 68.6 21.9 23.1 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 25.1 25.5 21.8 2.2 74.9 68.9 22.0 23.4 24.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 19.0 19.7 19.9 2.6 76.7 68.1 16.3 17.6 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 24.9 25.2 24.1 2.1 73.4 65.7 22.0 23.3 24.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------