***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.05.2021.-30.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 24.5 24.6 23.5 1.2 70.7 64.9 22.3 23.3 24.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 24.6 24.4 23.4 0.8 64.9 60.9 22.6 23.5 24.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 24.6 24.6 23.7 1.1 69.1 64.0 22.7 23.6 24.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 17.2 17.2 20.6 1.1 69.7 65.1 15.3 16.2 17.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 24.7 24.7 21.7 1.2 70.4 65.5 22.7 23.6 24.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 23.2 23.3 19.5 1.4 74.8 69.3 21.2 22.1 22.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 23.5 23.8 23.0 0.6 61.9 58.7 22.2 23.1 24.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 12.5 12.6 20.0 1.4 72.7 67.7 10.5 11.4 12.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 24.2 24.1 22.2 1.2 70.2 65.3 22.1 23.0 23.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 24.0 24.0 20.8 1.3 72.0 66.8 22.1 22.9 23.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 24.2 24.2 21.8 1.2 70.7 66.0 22.3 23.2 24.0 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 23.2 23.2 21.1 1.2 70.4 66.1 21.4 22.2 23.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 24.3 24.3 20.9 1.2 69.7 65.6 22.5 23.3 24.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 24.5 24.4 21.8 1.1 68.9 64.0 22.5 23.4 24.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 24.7 24.6 22.4 1.0 68.7 64.5 22.8 23.7 24.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 24.9 24.8 21.2 1.2 69.9 65.6 23.0 23.8 24.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 24.0 23.7 23.1 0.9 65.6 61.2 21.9 22.8 23.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 23.4 23.6 20.1 1.3 72.3 66.7 21.7 22.5 23.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 24.1 23.9 23.5 0.9 66.1 61.8 22.1 23.1 23.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 18.7 19.0 17.9 1.5 75.7 69.7 16.7 17.6 18.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 24.4 24.6 23.2 1.3 72.4 66.4 22.4 23.3 24.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 24.5 24.4 23.0 1.0 67.4 62.6 22.4 23.4 24.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 24.5 24.3 23.4 0.9 66.2 62.1 22.5 23.4 24.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 23.9 23.9 21.8 1.1 69.7 64.7 22.0 22.9 23.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 24.5 24.4 21.8 1.0 69.5 64.2 22.4 23.3 24.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 23.6 23.6 20.5 1.3 71.2 67.1 21.8 22.6 23.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 24.2 24.2 22.7 1.0 69.3 63.8 22.3 23.2 24.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 24.6 24.6 21.4 1.2 70.7 66.1 22.8 23.6 24.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 18.6 18.8 19.3 1.4 73.6 67.7 16.6 17.5 18.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 24.4 24.2 23.4 0.8 64.9 60.9 22.4 23.4 24.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------