***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.05.2021.-09.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 86 14 0 100 2.7 1.8 3.8 22.2 15.3 13.9 4.5 8.0 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 83 17 0 100 2.9 2.0 3.2 21.4 16.6 15.2 4.6 8.4 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 83 17 0 100 2.7 2.1 4.4 25.3 19.0 16.5 4.4 7.9 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 84 16 0 100 4.2 2.2 5.1 26.8 14.1 14.3 6.7 12.3 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 88 12 0 100 2.7 2.0 5.1 27.2 17.1 15.7 4.7 8.5 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 82 18 0 100 4.0 2.6 6.4 29.8 17.7 16.4 6.0 11.2 18.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 76 24 0 100 3.6 2.6 3.4 22.3 19.5 17.0 4.8 8.7 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 83 17 0 100 7.4 5.8 7.3 32.3 18.6 18.1 11.4 20.2 31.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 85 15 0 100 3.2 2.3 5.5 29.7 17.6 16.5 5.2 9.6 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 80 20 0 100 4.5 3.4 7.7 33.0 19.5 18.7 6.4 11.2 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 85 15 0 100 3.3 2.4 5.3 27.4 17.3 16.1 5.4 10.0 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 82 18 0 100 4.9 3.9 5.6 29.9 18.4 17.5 7.1 11.5 17.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 83 17 0 100 3.4 2.4 5.0 25.1 16.4 15.3 5.3 9.1 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 76 24 0 100 4.3 3.3 7.2 31.8 22.5 20.4 5.8 11.4 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 86 14 0 100 2.8 2.2 3.9 23.3 18.2 15.6 4.5 7.8 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 85 15 0 100 3.3 2.4 5.3 28.4 16.8 16.0 5.1 8.9 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 80 20 0 100 3.3 1.8 3.1 20.7 17.5 15.6 4.9 9.6 16.6 30 Palic 37000G16 77 23 0 100 5.1 4.2 8.6 37.8 21.6 20.8 7.0 12.5 19.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 84 16 0 100 3.7 2.5 3.4 21.7 16.7 15.2 6.0 11.3 18.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 79 21 0 100 5.5 4.6 7.6 32.3 19.7 18.7 7.6 12.3 18.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 84 16 0 100 3.6 2.9 5.1 28.7 18.4 16.2 5.5 9.4 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 81 19 0 100 4.1 3.3 3.4 22.4 18.8 16.3 5.9 9.5 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 80 20 0 100 4.1 2.7 4.0 23.0 17.7 16.1 5.9 10.8 17.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 79 21 0 100 4.4 4.0 7.2 35.1 22.7 20.4 6.3 11.7 19.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 86 14 0 100 3.5 2.2 4.5 23.8 15.4 13.8 5.6 10.2 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 85 15 0 100 3.1 2.1 4.2 22.9 15.6 13.9 4.9 8.5 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 86 14 0 100 3.8 2.5 4.0 22.0 14.8 13.5 6.1 10.3 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 86 14 0 100 2.6 1.8 5.2 27.2 16.4 15.5 4.5 8.3 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 77 23 0 100 5.2 4.2 8.6 37.6 22.1 21.0 7.2 13.2 21.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 81 19 0 100 2.6 1.6 3.7 23.3 18.1 16.1 3.9 7.9 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------