***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.05.2021.-16.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 3.7 12.2 16.3 107.3 65.7 41.5 4.0 7.5 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 3.4 11.1 15.3 109.1 66.4 45.2 3.7 6.8 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 3.6 11.3 15.5 96.6 61.4 42.1 3.8 7.6 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 5.0 12.7 16.0 84.4 56.1 37.7 5.5 10.4 17.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 3.6 11.1 16.8 93.1 59.8 39.6 3.9 7.9 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 4.3 9.0 17.5 80.5 52.5 37.6 4.8 8.4 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 2.7 11.1 15.3 109.6 66.8 45.2 2.8 5.9 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 8.8 17.5 16.8 86.9 56.6 41.7 9.1 14.9 22.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 3.2 9.4 16.8 90.4 58.6 39.4 3.4 6.9 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 4.9 12.4 17.7 89.1 58.6 42.1 5.1 9.5 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 3.1 8.0 16.1 90.2 57.9 39.7 3.4 6.3 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 3.6 8.5 14.9 86.6 56.6 39.1 3.9 7.0 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 2.9 6.6 16.5 83.8 55.7 37.9 3.4 5.7 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 3.8 11.2 18.1 91.7 59.3 40.7 3.9 8.0 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 3.0 7.9 14.7 85.1 57.7 37.1 3.5 6.3 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 4.0 8.4 15.9 85.1 56.4 38.0 4.4 7.2 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 4.0 13.7 14.1 104.8 65.2 45.1 4.1 8.2 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 5.9 13.6 18.8 87.0 56.7 43.0 6.2 11.1 17.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 3.6 13.9 15.4 106.3 65.4 44.7 4.0 8.1 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 4.7 11.2 18.6 86.3 55.5 42.3 4.8 9.3 15.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 3.6 10.2 16.4 96.5 61.5 40.0 3.7 7.0 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 4.7 14.6 14.0 100.3 63.5 45.4 4.6 9.3 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 2.9 10.2 15.5 101.0 63.6 43.7 3.4 6.6 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 4.6 12.6 17.9 91.3 58.7 42.6 5.0 9.4 15.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 4.6 12.9 18.4 101.7 63.2 40.8 4.8 8.7 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 2.8 7.1 14.5 80.7 53.5 36.3 3.2 6.3 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 3.8 12.8 17.7 106.6 65.2 41.5 4.0 7.7 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 3.0 7.9 15.0 83.0 56.5 37.3 3.4 6.4 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 6.6 15.2 19.1 86.2 55.7 42.7 6.8 12.7 20.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 3.4 12.0 15.1 105.1 65.2 44.1 3.3 6.9 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------