***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.05.2021.-23.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 8.5 18.6 13.7 85.8 57.8 44.4 8.2 14.8 23.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 6.1 11.5 12.4 79.5 55.7 42.8 5.7 9.8 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 9.4 17.5 13.8 84.6 57.3 45.0 9.2 14.6 21.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 8.4 15.0 13.7 72.7 51.0 40.8 8.5 14.7 22.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 8.4 17.7 14.4 80.5 55.1 44.2 7.9 15.0 24.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 7.1 11.2 15.0 70.2 48.6 40.3 6.9 11.6 18.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 13.3 12.9 12.7 84.9 58.3 44.2 5.6 10.0 16.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 13.3 25.2 17.2 87.1 56.5 45.2 13.8 21.6 31.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 6.6 13.8 15.4 84.1 56.4 44.5 6.3 11.4 18.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 10.3 19.0 17.8 85.7 56.2 45.2 10.3 16.3 23.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 6.0 12.2 13.7 83.4 56.1 45.4 5.5 10.2 16.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 6.9 13.8 14.0 83.6 56.1 44.7 6.8 11.7 17.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 6.1 11.1 13.9 71.9 51.4 41.8 6.3 10.6 16.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 8.4 18.4 18.2 83.4 55.9 44.8 8.6 15.4 24.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 5.0 9.2 11.1 68.3 51.3 39.1 5.0 8.9 14.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 7.7 12.9 13.1 71.7 50.9 41.4 7.4 12.5 19.3 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 4.2 9.9 12.5 82.4 57.4 42.8 4.2 7.8 12.8 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 9.5 17.7 20.2 88.7 57.1 46.4 9.3 14.9 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 6.9 13.7 12.4 77.2 54.6 42.9 6.5 11.8 19.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 10.0 17.6 20.3 90.9 57.7 47.0 9.9 15.0 21.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 7.8 16.4 14.4 85.7 57.7 44.7 7.8 13.2 20.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 6.0 10.8 12.3 74.3 53.4 40.9 6.4 10.0 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 7.5 13.9 13.0 80.2 55.5 44.5 7.4 12.0 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 9.2 18.9 17.9 88.4 57.4 46.1 9.3 15.5 23.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 7.3 15.4 15.5 84.7 56.6 44.2 7.1 12.7 20.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 5.7 10.7 12.0 71.8 51.8 41.2 5.9 10.1 15.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 8.8 18.7 14.8 85.4 57.4 43.9 8.8 15.2 23.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 6.6 10.8 12.3 66.9 49.4 38.9 6.8 11.0 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 12.7 24.4 20.5 89.6 57.3 46.7 12.6 20.4 30.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 16.0 15.1 12.8 82.0 56.7 43.9 7.5 12.7 19.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------