***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.05.2021.-30.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 2.8 8.7 16.9 102.6 64.7 50.1 2.4 5.2 9.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 3.9 12.1 14.4 99.0 63.3 49.2 3.5 7.4 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.8 9.9 15.4 94.2 61.7 47.5 3.6 6.8 11.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.1 12.6 16.6 88.0 59.0 45.7 4.9 9.3 15.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 9.7 8.8 14.3 81.3 56.5 43.8 4.1 7.3 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 14.2 13.2 18.8 86.3 56.2 47.3 6.3 11.1 17.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 3.3 11.8 15.5 104.8 65.0 49.5 2.9 6.6 12.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 24.0 20.7 16.3 78.7 53.2 43.4 11.3 19.0 28.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 4.0 8.8 15.0 80.3 55.7 42.8 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 13.2 11.2 17.1 78.7 53.8 43.4 5.6 10.0 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.3 10.0 13.5 80.4 55.3 44.1 4.3 8.4 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 5.7 10.5 13.3 77.4 53.7 43.5 5.2 9.4 15.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 10.7 9.2 14.9 75.7 53.8 45.1 3.8 8.0 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.6 16.2 18.8 85.6 57.5 47.7 7.6 13.1 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 4.4 11.3 15.0 87.2 59.9 45.4 3.8 7.8 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 12.3 11.2 14.2 77.7 54.5 44.6 5.8 9.9 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 3.3 11.4 14.8 104.8 65.4 49.1 3.0 6.4 11.5 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 7.0 12.4 19.0 79.5 53.6 43.2 6.8 11.3 17.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 3.9 10.3 14.2 94.1 61.9 48.8 3.5 6.9 11.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 8.2 14.4 19.6 83.9 55.0 44.8 7.8 12.7 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 3.5 8.4 15.8 91.4 60.5 45.8 3.6 6.3 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.7 14.0 14.6 94.9 62.1 48.3 4.4 9.0 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 8.1 8.3 14.1 89.7 60.5 48.1 3.6 6.2 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 6.9 12.7 17.4 84.3 56.5 45.2 6.8 10.8 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 3.9 10.7 19.7 107.6 66.1 49.9 4.1 6.9 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 12.3 9.6 12.2 69.8 50.9 42.0 5.2 9.4 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 3.0 9.6 19.3 108.7 66.4 50.8 3.0 5.6 9.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 10.7 9.8 15.4 80.4 56.5 44.9 4.5 8.1 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 10.2 17.5 19.5 81.8 54.2 44.1 9.9 15.7 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 3.0 9.2 14.8 97.7 62.7 48.5 2.9 5.9 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------