***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.05.2021.-30.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 35.2 43.0 50.7 78.2 41.2 36.9 37.3 49.1 62.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 30.8 38.2 45.4 76.5 40.2 37.2 33.7 44.8 57.8 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 32.2 38.8 49.1 74.2 38.0 35.6 35.1 48.0 62.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 43.3 47.9 51.4 68.0 30.7 30.4 50.0 64.7 81.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 33.2 38.7 50.6 70.1 33.3 32.0 38.7 52.9 69.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 77 23 0 100 37.5 38.2 57.6 66.8 24.2 26.1 44.7 56.9 70.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 28.3 36.9 46.9 79.3 42.0 38.2 30.2 43.2 58.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 72.6 75.7 57.5 69.9 28.8 30.8 80.1 97.9 116.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 31.3 36.5 52.8 71.1 34.0 33.1 35.6 48.7 63.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 42.9 46.6 60.2 70.5 30.5 31.7 48.6 61.8 76.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 31.5 34.8 48.7 69.2 30.7 30.7 36.6 48.6 61.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 33.8 36.6 47.9 68.6 30.0 30.9 38.7 50.8 64.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 77 23 0 100 28.2 30.4 50.3 63.9 27.0 27.7 34.1 45.0 57.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 46.1 51.3 62.3 72.3 35.0 34.6 49.4 65.6 84.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 30.3 33.3 44.7 66.2 32.4 30.7 33.9 43.3 53.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 34.8 37.2 48.4 65.6 28.3 28.3 40.0 50.3 61.4 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 30.4 36.9 44.5 77.2 41.2 37.8 30.5 44.3 60.3 29 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 48.1 51.8 66.7 73.0 32.2 33.6 52.4 65.5 79.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 38.8 46.5 45.4 74.0 38.6 36.4 42.6 55.3 69.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 47.4 49.8 66.1 73.2 30.3 32.5 51.5 63.4 76.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 31.8 39.1 51.7 75.0 38.6 35.2 35.4 46.7 59.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 34.8 40.3 44.4 72.3 37.5 35.6 37.1 50.1 64.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 32.6 37.0 46.6 72.2 38.0 36.2 33.5 45.9 59.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 45.9 51.5 60.3 74.6 36.0 35.6 49.0 63.2 78.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 35.2 44.5 58.1 79.0 41.4 36.6 38.3 51.1 64.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 78 22 0 100 27.7 29.1 42.9 61.0 25.5 26.9 34.0 45.3 58.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 37.2 46.4 55.8 79.8 42.4 37.4 39.7 52.2 65.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 74 26 0 100 30.6 33.3 47.9 64.4 28.9 28.6 35.6 45.6 56.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 66.5 70.4 67.7 73.7 32.0 33.4 71.1 84.4 98.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 31.6 39.3 46.4 76.2 39.7 36.7 34.4 46.8 60.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------