***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2015.-17.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 9.9 9.8 10.6 -1.3 21.9 30.8 10.4 11.1 11.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 10.1 10.1 10.8 -1.2 24.2 32.4 10.6 11.4 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 11.8 11.7 10.5 -1.2 24.2 32.9 12.2 13.0 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 6.6 6.6 8.6 -1.1 24.8 33.8 7.1 8.2 9.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 8.6 8.5 8.4 -1.1 24.4 33.9 9.0 9.8 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 7.6 7.7 6.8 -1.0 27.2 35.5 7.9 8.6 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 10.0 9.9 10.8 -1.3 23.2 31.5 10.4 11.2 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 2.6 2.5 6.7 -1.0 25.7 35.7 2.9 3.7 4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 9.5 9.5 8.8 -1.0 26.0 35.0 9.9 10.7 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 9.5 9.6 7.3 -0.9 27.0 36.5 9.8 10.5 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 9.2 9.2 7.9 -1.1 24.0 34.1 9.6 10.3 11.0 29 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 7.4 7.3 7.5 -1.0 24.1 34.4 7.7 8.5 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 8.8 8.7 7.1 -1.0 24.4 33.8 9.2 9.9 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 10.1 10.1 8.8 -1.0 26.7 34.6 10.4 11.1 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 10.3 10.4 9.4 -0.8 29.2 36.7 10.5 11.3 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 9.9 9.8 7.7 -1.0 24.1 33.4 10.2 11.0 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 10.3 10.3 10.6 -1.2 24.5 32.7 10.7 11.5 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 7.8 7.9 6.7 -0.9 28.7 37.3 8.1 8.8 9.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 10.3 10.3 10.7 -1.1 25.3 33.4 10.7 11.4 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 4.1 4.1 4.9 -1.0 26.5 35.5 4.4 5.1 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 9.5 9.4 9.8 -1.1 24.7 33.6 9.8 10.6 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 9.5 9.6 10.5 -1.1 26.0 33.9 10.0 10.7 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 9.8 9.9 10.3 -1.0 26.3 34.3 10.2 10.9 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 9.5 9.6 8.6 -1.0 27.0 35.5 9.9 10.6 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 9.8 9.7 9.1 -1.2 23.3 32.7 10.2 10.9 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 8.6 8.4 7.2 -1.1 22.6 33.3 8.9 9.7 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 9.9 9.7 9.9 -1.3 22.4 31.5 10.4 11.5 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 8.4 8.4 8.9 -1.0 26.1 34.3 8.7 9.4 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 6.7 6.9 6.1 -0.9 28.8 37.0 7.1 7.9 8.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 10.1 10.1 10.8 -1.2 23.5 31.9 10.6 11.4 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------