***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2015.-24.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 11.2 11.7 12.6 -0.7 37.0 41.1 11.4 12.3 13.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 11.0 11.5 12.6 -0.7 36.4 40.5 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 12.4 12.9 12.3 -0.7 35.4 40.4 12.7 13.7 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 7.1 7.4 10.3 -0.8 33.6 39.6 7.4 8.6 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 9.9 10.1 10.1 -0.8 32.5 39.2 10.1 10.8 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 8.7 9.0 8.6 -0.6 37.3 41.9 8.9 9.6 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 11.0 11.5 12.6 -0.7 36.6 40.6 11.3 12.2 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 2.9 3.3 8.4 -0.7 33.8 40.1 3.3 4.3 5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 10.6 10.9 10.5 -0.8 33.3 39.8 10.9 11.7 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 10.4 10.7 9.0 -0.8 33.1 39.9 10.7 11.4 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 10.4 10.6 9.7 -0.8 32.7 39.5 10.6 11.3 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 8.4 8.6 9.2 -0.8 32.6 39.5 8.6 9.4 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 10.0 10.1 8.7 -0.8 32.1 39.0 10.2 10.8 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 11.0 11.2 10.3 -1.1 28.9 36.1 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 11.6 12.0 10.9 -0.6 37.8 42.0 11.7 12.5 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 10.7 10.9 9.4 -0.8 32.8 39.3 10.9 11.8 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 11.3 11.7 12.3 -0.8 35.6 40.0 11.6 12.4 13.2 29 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 8.9 9.2 8.2 -0.9 31.6 38.8 9.3 10.0 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 11.1 11.6 12.4 -0.8 35.5 40.1 11.4 12.3 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 5.1 5.4 6.5 -0.8 33.4 39.5 5.4 6.1 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 10.6 10.9 11.6 -0.8 34.0 40.0 10.9 11.7 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 10.6 10.9 12.2 -0.9 34.0 39.0 10.9 11.7 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 10.7 11.1 11.9 -0.9 32.9 38.5 11.1 11.9 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 10.5 10.7 10.2 -0.9 31.0 38.0 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 11.1 11.3 10.9 -0.8 34.3 40.1 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 9.4 9.6 8.9 -0.8 32.8 38.8 9.6 10.3 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 11.0 11.5 11.8 -0.7 36.1 40.7 11.3 12.4 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 9.7 10.0 10.6 -0.7 35.3 40.4 9.9 10.7 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 7.0 7.3 7.5 -0.9 31.5 38.6 7.4 8.5 9.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 11.1 11.7 12.7 -0.7 36.9 40.9 11.5 12.4 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------