***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2015.-31.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 12.8 12.3 14.2 -0.1 47.6 48.6 11.4 12.4 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 12.8 12.3 14.3 -0.1 48.5 49.1 11.3 12.4 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 14.6 14.1 14.1 -0.1 48.5 49.2 13.1 14.2 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 9.3 8.8 12.1 0.0 49.1 49.6 7.7 8.9 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 11.2 10.7 12.0 -0.1 47.9 48.6 9.9 10.8 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 9.8 9.5 10.2 -0.1 48.4 49.2 8.7 9.5 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 12.8 12.4 14.3 -0.1 48.4 49.1 11.4 12.5 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 4.9 4.4 10.1 0.0 49.0 49.6 3.4 4.5 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 12.1 11.6 12.3 -0.1 48.2 49.0 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 12.0 11.6 10.7 -0.1 48.6 49.2 10.7 11.7 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 11.8 11.3 11.5 -0.1 47.5 48.3 10.5 11.4 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 10.0 9.6 10.9 -0.1 48.1 48.8 8.8 9.7 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 11.2 10.7 10.4 -0.2 46.4 47.4 10.0 10.9 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.8 12.2 12.2 -0.2 45.7 47.2 11.6 12.5 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 12.9 12.7 12.7 0.1 52.5 52.1 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 12.2 11.7 11.2 -0.2 46.8 47.7 10.9 11.9 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 13.1 12.5 14.0 -0.2 47.3 48.5 11.7 12.7 13.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 10.5 10.0 10.0 -0.1 47.9 48.3 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 12.7 12.3 14.2 -0.1 48.4 49.1 11.4 12.3 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.2 6.1 8.2 -0.1 47.5 48.0 5.3 6.2 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 12.1 11.7 13.4 -0.1 48.0 49.0 10.9 11.8 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.3 11.7 13.8 -0.2 46.0 47.4 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 12.4 11.9 13.8 -0.1 47.6 48.6 11.0 12.0 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 12.2 11.7 12.0 -0.1 47.4 48.2 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 12.4 11.9 12.7 -0.1 48.3 49.4 11.0 12.0 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 10.7 10.1 10.6 -0.2 45.4 46.7 9.5 10.4 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.8 12.2 13.5 -0.1 48.1 49.0 11.2 12.3 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 11.0 10.7 12.4 0.0 49.7 49.9 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 9.2 8.5 9.3 -0.2 47.0 47.5 7.6 8.7 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 12.9 12.5 14.4 -0.1 48.8 49.3 11.5 12.5 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------