***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2015.-31.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 11.7 11.5 12.8 0.1 52.4 51.8 10.8 11.4 12.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 11.7 11.6 12.8 0.1 54.8 53.4 10.9 11.5 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 13.4 13.4 12.6 0.2 56.1 54.3 12.5 13.1 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 8.3 8.4 10.6 0.2 58.2 56.0 7.4 8.1 8.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.2 10.2 10.6 0.2 57.7 55.6 9.4 9.9 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.0 9.1 8.8 0.3 62.3 58.2 8.2 8.7 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 11.7 11.6 12.8 0.1 52.8 52.2 10.9 11.5 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 3.9 4.1 8.8 0.3 63.0 59.4 3.1 3.7 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 10.2 11.0 11.0 0.2 58.0 55.9 10.3 10.8 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 10.9 11.0 9.5 0.3 62.3 59.0 10.2 10.7 11.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.7 10.7 10.1 0.2 58.8 56.1 10.0 10.5 10.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.9 9.0 9.6 0.3 61.3 58.0 8.2 8.7 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 10.2 10.3 9.2 0.3 60.8 57.3 9.5 10.0 10.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 11.6 11.6 10.9 0.2 57.5 55.0 10.9 11.4 11.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 11.8 12.0 11.3 0.3 60.9 58.0 11.1 11.6 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 11.3 11.4 9.9 0.2 59.8 56.5 10.5 11.0 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 12.0 11.9 12.5 0.1 53.9 53.0 11.2 11.7 12.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 9.3 9.4 8.7 0.3 62.2 58.9 8.5 9.0 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 11.7 11.7 12.7 0.2 55.9 54.0 11.0 11.5 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 5.6 5.7 6.9 0.3 59.5 57.0 4.9 5.4 5.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.0 11.0 12.0 0.2 55.9 54.4 10.3 10.8 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.1 11.1 12.5 0.1 54.5 53.2 10.5 11.0 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 11.3 11.3 12.3 0.2 56.2 53.8 10.6 11.1 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 11.0 11.1 10.7 0.2 58.8 56.2 10.3 10.8 11.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 11.4 11.2 11.3 0.1 52.4 52.1 10.6 11.1 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.8 10.0 9.3 0.3 62.4 58.9 9.1 9.6 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.9 11.6 12.0 0.0 51.6 51.4 10.9 11.6 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 9.9 10.0 11.0 0.3 60.1 57.2 9.2 9.7 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 8.1 8.2 8.0 0.2 59.3 56.5 7.3 7.9 8.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 11.8 11.7 12.9 0.1 54.6 53.3 11.0 11.6 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------