***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2015.-10.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 14 86 100 24.4 25.4 23.4 2.3 83.7 79.5 20.7 22.2 23.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 23.9 25.2 23.4 2.3 83.9 79.0 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 24.3 25.5 23.8 2.6 85.2 80.6 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 19 81 100 16.9 18.0 21.3 2.6 83.7 79.5 13.5 14.9 16.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 14 86 100 24.3 25.6 22.6 3.0 85.9 81.8 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 11 89 100 22.9 24.4 21.1 3.6 87.4 83.1 19.1 20.6 22.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 23.5 24.3 23.0 2.0 80.3 75.8 20.4 21.8 23.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 7 93 100 12.1 14.0 21.7 3.9 90.2 85.8 8.3 9.8 11.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 12 88 100 23.7 25.0 23.5 3.0 86.5 82.2 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 12 88 100 23.6 25.1 22.3 3.4 87.9 83.4 20.3 21.6 22.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 10 90 100 24.1 25.5 22.7 3.3 87.5 83.4 20.5 21.9 23.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 6 94 100 23.1 24.8 22.4 3.8 89.8 85.7 19.4 20.8 22.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 11 89 100 24.0 25.5 22.3 3.5 87.9 83.8 20.3 21.7 23.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 23.8 25.1 22.7 2.7 84.6 79.3 20.6 21.9 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 23.8 24.6 22.5 2.2 79.8 75.7 20.7 22.1 23.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 11 89 100 24.5 26.0 22.5 3.4 87.6 83.6 20.9 22.3 23.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 23.0 24.0 22.8 2.1 81.3 76.3 20.0 21.3 22.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 11 89 100 23.1 24.7 21.5 3.5 88.5 83.7 19.7 21.0 22.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 23.5 24.9 23.5 2.5 85.1 80.2 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 8 92 100 18.4 20.5 19.9 4.1 91.5 86.9 14.8 16.2 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 14 86 100 24.0 25.1 23.9 2.8 85.1 80.7 20.5 21.9 23.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 23.8 24.8 22.8 2.2 82.4 77.4 20.5 21.9 23.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 23.8 25.2 23.6 2.5 85.3 80.3 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 23.4 24.8 22.8 3.0 85.9 81.1 20.2 21.6 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 23.8 24.7 22.2 2.3 82.0 77.8 20.6 21.9 23.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 7 93 100 23.3 25.1 21.7 3.8 90.0 85.8 19.6 21.0 22.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 23.6 24.4 22.7 2.2 81.7 77.7 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 24.0 25.1 22.2 2.7 84.0 79.7 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 11 89 100 18.2 20.0 20.9 3.7 89.6 84.7 14.6 16.0 17.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 23.8 24.9 23.5 2.4 84.1 79.5 20.5 21.9 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------