***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2015.-24.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 21.2 22.0 22.8 -0.9 37.2 41.1 21.6 23.2 24.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 21.9 22.7 22.8 -1.0 37.3 40.8 22.3 23.8 25.1 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 21.8 22.5 22.8 -1.1 36.2 40.3 22.2 23.7 25.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 14.4 15.2 21.1 -1.0 36.8 40.5 14.8 16.5 18.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 21.9 22.6 21.1 -1.1 35.8 40.0 22.3 24.0 25.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 20.5 21.7 19.4 -0.7 40.6 42.5 21.0 22.5 24.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 21.8 22.5 22.8 -0.9 38.1 41.4 22.1 23.5 24.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 10.4 11.0 19.6 -1.1 35.6 39.7 10.7 12.2 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 21.3 21.9 21.5 -1.2 35.1 39.5 21.7 23.3 24.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 21.5 22.0 20.2 -1.2 34.9 39.3 21.8 23.4 25.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 21.6 22.3 20.7 -1.0 36.6 40.6 21.9 23.6 25.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 20.8 21.5 20.5 -1.0 37.0 40.6 21.1 22.6 24.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 21.8 22.8 20.1 -0.9 38.8 41.6 22.3 23.8 25.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 21.5 22.1 21.0 -1.4 32.4 37.4 22.1 23.7 25.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 24.9 23.3 21.5 -0.8 38.4 41.3 22.8 24.3 25.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 22.2 23.1 20.5 -0.9 38.2 41.4 22.6 24.2 25.8 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 21.4 22.2 22.6 -1.0 37.7 41.0 21.8 23.2 24.5 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 21.0 21.6 19.5 -1.3 34.2 38.7 21.4 23.0 24.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 21.4 22.1 22.8 -1.0 36.6 40.4 21.8 23.3 24.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 16.1 16.8 17.4 -1.2 34.5 38.8 16.7 18.2 19.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 21.7 22.2 22.2 -1.1 35.5 39.9 21.9 23.6 25.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 21.6 22.4 22.4 -1.1 35.4 39.4 22.2 23.6 25.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 21.6 22.3 22.5 -1.2 34.9 39.3 22.2 23.7 25.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 21.1 21.7 21.1 -1.3 34.1 38.7 21.6 23.1 24.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 21.5 22.3 21.3 -1.0 36.7 40.6 21.9 23.6 25.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 21.2 22.2 19.9 -0.8 39.6 42.1 21.7 23.1 24.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 21.4 22.3 22.0 -0.9 37.7 41.3 21.9 23.4 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 24.9 23.1 21.3 -0.9 37.8 41.0 22.6 24.2 25.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 15.9 16.6 18.5 -1.3 34.0 38.5 16.5 18.1 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 21.7 22.5 22.9 -1.0 37.3 41.0 22.1 23.6 25.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------