***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2015.-31.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 22.5 23.7 24.2 -0.6 41.1 43.7 23.0 24.5 26.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 22.9 24.1 24.2 -0.6 41.8 43.9 23.4 24.7 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 22.9 23.9 24.2 -0.7 40.5 43.2 23.3 24.7 26.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 15.2 16.6 22.7 -0.4 43.9 44.8 15.6 17.1 18.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 22.8 24.0 22.7 -0.5 42.4 44.0 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 21.2 22.5 20.7 -0.3 45.6 45.8 21.4 22.9 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 22.4 23.6 24.2 -0.6 42.0 44.3 22.9 24.2 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 10.3 11.5 21.0 -0.5 42.3 43.9 10.6 12.2 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 22.3 23.4 22.9 -0.6 41.2 43.2 22.6 24.2 25.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 22.2 23.2 21.7 -0.6 41.4 43.5 22.5 23.9 25.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 22.5 23.8 22.2 -0.5 43.4 44.7 22.8 24.3 25.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 21.4 22.5 21.9 -0.5 42.7 44.2 21.7 23.1 24.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 22.3 23.5 21.4 -0.5 43.0 44.3 22.6 24.2 25.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 22.4 23.3 22.4 -1.0 36.5 40.4 23.0 24.4 25.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 23.3 24.8 23.1 -0.2 46.7 46.3 23.7 25.0 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 22.9 24.3 22.0 -0.4 44.0 44.9 23.2 24.8 26.3 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 22.1 23.3 24.0 -0.6 41.7 43.8 22.6 24.0 25.2 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 21.5 22.5 20.9 -0.8 39.6 42.5 21.9 23.4 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 22.4 23.5 24.2 -0.7 41.2 43.5 22.9 24.2 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 16.3 17.6 18.8 -0.7 40.8 43.1 16.8 18.5 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 22.7 23.7 23.7 -0.7 40.8 43.2 23.0 24.5 25.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 22.4 23.7 23.9 -0.8 39.7 42.5 23.1 24.5 25.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 22.7 23.8 23.9 -0.8 39.6 42.4 23.2 24.6 25.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 22.1 23.0 22.4 -0.9 38.6 41.9 22.5 23.9 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 22.8 24.0 22.7 -0.5 42.1 44.0 23.2 24.6 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 21.8 22.9 21.2 -0.6 41.9 43.4 22.1 23.6 25.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 22.4 23.6 23.4 -0.6 41.8 44.1 22.8 24.2 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 23.2 24.6 22.9 -0.3 45.2 45.3 23.6 24.9 26.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 16.5 17.5 19.9 -0.8 39.4 42.4 16.9 18.5 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 22.8 23.9 24.3 -0.6 41.6 43.9 23.2 24.6 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------