***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2015.-31.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 22.1 22.8 22.6 -0.4 40.7 43.5 22.4 23.4 24.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 22.5 23.2 22.7 -0.3 42.5 44.2 22.6 23.6 24.5 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 22.5 23.2 22.8 -0.4 41.2 43.3 22.7 23.6 24.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 15.1 15.9 20.9 -0.2 43.5 44.9 15.4 16.2 17.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 22.5 23.4 21.2 -0.3 43.4 44.7 22.8 23.7 24.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 21.0 22.3 19.4 0.1 53.1 51.0 21.3 22.1 22.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 22.1 22.7 22.6 -0.4 41.0 43.4 22.3 23.2 24.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 10.4 11.5 19.8 0.0 49.8 49.4 10.6 11.5 12.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 21.9 22.7 21.7 -0.3 42.1 43.7 22.2 23.1 24.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 21.9 22.8 20.4 -0.2 45.2 46.0 22.2 23.0 23.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 22.1 23.1 20.9 -0.1 47.3 47.4 22.4 23.2 24.0 29 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 21.3 22.3 20.6 0.0 50.1 49.5 21.5 22.3 23.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 22.3 23.3 20.2 0.0 49.4 49.0 22.5 23.4 24.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 22.3 22.7 21.2 -0.6 36.5 39.5 22.5 23.4 24.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 22.7 23.5 21.5 -0.2 44.7 45.8 23.0 23.8 24.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 22.8 23.8 20.6 0.0 48.8 48.5 23.0 23.9 24.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 23.3 22.5 22.4 -0.3 41.8 43.6 22.0 22.9 23.8 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 21.5 22.3 19.7 -0.2 44.1 45.3 21.7 22.5 23.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 22.1 22.7 22.8 -0.3 42.2 43.8 22.2 23.1 24.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 16.6 17.7 17.7 0.0 49.8 49.7 16.8 17.7 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 22.1 22.9 22.3 -0.4 40.9 43.2 22.4 23.4 24.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 22.2 22.8 22.3 -0.4 39.7 41.8 22.5 23.4 24.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 22.4 23.0 22.5 -0.4 39.9 42.1 22.6 23.5 24.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 21.9 22.5 21.2 -0.4 40.2 42.4 22.1 22.9 23.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 22.2 22.9 21.2 -0.4 40.2 43.1 22.5 23.4 24.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 21.6 22.8 20.0 0.1 52.3 50.9 21.9 22.7 23.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 22.1 22.7 21.9 -0.4 40.2 43.3 22.3 23.2 24.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 22.6 23.5 21.2 -0.1 46.0 46.5 22.9 23.7 24.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 16.5 17.4 18.8 -0.2 45.3 46.3 16.7 17.6 18.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 23.8 23.0 22.8 -0.3 42.2 44.1 22.5 23.4 24.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------