***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2015.-10.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 11.3 18.2 23.2 141.8 76.5 60.3 5.4 9.0 13.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 15.8 18.8 20.3 142.3 76.3 60.9 4.6 8.5 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 10.9 16.7 21.5 132.8 73.4 58.5 4.9 8.6 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 17.6 21.7 22.9 110.7 65.9 55.0 7.6 13.6 21.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 12.3 15.4 22.3 113.2 66.8 55.6 5.1 9.3 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 7.2 19.1 24.4 109.4 64.9 53.5 6.6 12.1 19.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 16.3 18.3 20.3 138.2 75.2 60.2 5.8 9.5 14.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 25.9 27.6 20.6 100.7 61.3 52.9 11.4 20.1 31.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 6.1 17.9 22.3 119.8 69.2 56.8 5.6 10.2 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 14.7 16.7 22.6 106.1 63.7 54.5 6.5 11.4 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 13.3 15.4 19.7 106.7 64.4 54.5 5.7 10.0 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 7.9 16.7 18.3 105.6 63.9 54.4 7.6 12.1 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 12.0 13.8 20.3 107.0 64.0 54.7 5.7 9.6 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.0 22.5 24.1 121.6 69.8 58.4 6.3 12.0 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 10.0 11.8 20.6 105.3 63.9 53.0 4.6 8.0 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 6.1 14.0 20.1 105.8 63.8 53.9 5.9 9.7 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 14.9 22.1 19.0 128.8 72.3 56.9 6.1 11.2 18.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 15.8 18.1 24.4 105.4 63.2 55.2 6.9 12.4 19.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 16.4 26.9 20.6 141.6 76.1 60.5 7.0 12.5 19.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 15.1 14.9 22.9 97.3 58.3 51.6 7.7 12.2 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 12.2 18.0 22.6 131.7 73.1 58.7 5.8 9.7 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 13.0 17.6 18.9 127.1 71.8 57.4 6.8 10.7 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 14.9 22.7 21.2 134.3 74.0 59.0 6.8 11.8 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.2 19.0 22.9 112.6 66.3 56.2 6.0 11.5 18.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 14.5 20.5 24.7 125.5 71.5 57.5 6.2 11.0 17.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 5.7 11.6 17.7 97.4 59.2 50.5 5.4 9.1 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 18.3 20.8 24.6 135.9 75.1 60.2 6.7 11.0 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.8 12.7 21.4 106.8 64.5 53.7 4.2 8.0 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 18.5 20.7 24.3 105.1 62.6 54.7 7.6 13.9 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 16.9 20.2 21.2 143.5 76.8 61.3 4.5 8.6 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------