***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2015.-17.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 10.2 15.8 16.6 129.7 72.6 55.4 3.8 7.4 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.9 11.6 15.3 115.0 68.0 53.0 3.7 6.8 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 4.5 18.4 17.0 136.1 74.4 57.2 3.9 7.9 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 19.9 23.5 21.3 143.6 76.2 61.0 5.6 10.5 17.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 16.6 18.1 19.7 132.3 73.3 59.2 3.9 7.9 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 9.8 13.8 27.8 121.6 69.8 57.4 4.2 7.6 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 3.4 11.2 15.2 109.8 66.1 51.4 2.9 6.2 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 25.8 27.4 22.1 129.3 72.4 60.2 9.2 15.4 23.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.9 15.2 18.9 125.9 71.6 58.0 3.3 6.9 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 19.0 20.8 23.2 131.7 73.1 60.4 5.3 10.0 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 13.4 14.7 18.7 135.8 74.3 61.1 3.9 7.2 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 13.7 13.7 16.9 124.8 71.1 59.2 4.4 7.6 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.5 9.6 20.4 114.6 67.2 57.0 3.2 5.8 9.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 18.9 22.5 22.6 139.5 75.2 60.0 5.2 10.0 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 11.5 13.9 21.3 145.5 76.6 61.8 3.7 6.5 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 14.3 14.6 19.5 124.7 70.8 59.0 4.4 8.0 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 3.8 12.2 14.2 106.0 65.1 50.8 3.4 7.0 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 22.3 23.9 27.1 131.3 73.0 60.9 6.9 12.2 19.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 4.3 16.2 15.7 124.3 70.8 54.8 4.0 8.0 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 21.1 21.1 28.0 123.4 70.4 59.6 6.6 11.7 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 9.1 14.4 16.6 129.7 72.7 56.6 3.2 6.5 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 4.9 15.7 14.4 111.3 66.8 52.4 4.4 8.9 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 14.3 16.7 17.0 141.1 75.6 58.6 3.6 7.1 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 18.8 21.4 23.0 137.9 74.9 60.0 6.1 10.7 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 16.3 17.7 21.9 133.4 73.6 58.5 4.5 8.4 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.6 13.1 18.1 116.8 68.2 58.0 3.3 6.9 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 10.7 16.4 20.2 127.4 71.9 56.7 3.6 7.5 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 11.4 13.6 20.8 141.6 75.6 61.2 3.4 6.2 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 23.7 25.2 27.6 128.4 72.2 60.3 8.0 13.8 21.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 4.3 15.3 15.9 123.4 70.7 54.9 3.8 7.6 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------