***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2015.-24.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 8.9 28.0 16.6 127.3 72.1 54.4 8.8 15.2 23.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 13.6 16.9 16.0 112.0 67.3 50.4 6.7 10.9 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 9.3 22.2 14.9 111.5 67.3 51.8 9.2 14.6 21.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 17.5 24.5 20.4 125.0 71.2 56.6 8.1 13.9 21.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 19.4 27.1 19.4 121.7 70.4 55.8 8.1 14.8 23.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 14.6 18.4 23.3 111.6 66.7 53.2 6.4 11.5 18.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 13.4 16.5 16.3 109.1 66.5 51.2 6.3 10.5 16.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 24.1 26.7 18.3 98.6 62.6 51.3 11.2 19.2 29.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 6.1 18.6 18.1 113.7 67.9 52.8 6.2 11.0 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 10.0 22.3 19.5 102.2 63.9 51.4 9.7 15.7 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 12.4 17.0 16.9 118.1 69.5 55.5 4.9 9.2 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 14.0 17.4 15.4 109.2 66.4 53.3 6.5 11.0 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 12.2 16.5 19.2 116.9 68.7 55.7 5.6 9.8 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 8.6 21.5 17.8 103.0 63.5 49.6 8.5 14.7 23.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 5.1 15.0 17.5 114.7 68.5 53.5 4.7 8.7 14.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 13.6 19.1 18.5 123.1 70.8 57.0 6.1 10.7 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 11.9 15.6 16.8 118.5 69.3 50.7 5.9 9.5 14.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 16.2 17.5 21.7 99.8 62.3 49.8 7.9 12.9 19.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 17.0 21.2 15.1 112.5 67.5 50.2 7.8 13.3 20.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 16.5 17.3 22.7 95.4 60.2 48.7 9.0 13.7 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 7.1 21.2 15.9 118.4 69.5 52.8 7.1 12.3 19.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 12.8 16.3 16.1 123.5 70.8 51.8 7.4 10.8 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 14.1 16.6 13.9 106.0 65.6 49.3 7.0 11.4 16.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 9.1 21.7 18.5 104.8 64.4 50.6 8.8 14.8 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 16.1 24.0 21.2 131.5 73.1 56.9 6.9 12.3 19.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 11.2 15.1 17.2 118.6 69.2 55.9 4.8 8.6 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 9.3 27.3 20.1 129.4 72.6 55.9 9.0 14.9 23.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 14.0 18.6 18.8 117.8 69.4 54.8 6.9 11.3 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 23.5 24.9 21.5 97.1 61.2 49.4 11.4 18.7 28.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 8.5 19.9 15.8 111.6 67.4 51.7 8.4 13.2 19.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------