***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2015.-31.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 8.3 13.2 15.5 127.0 72.8 58.4 3.2 6.2 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 4.6 17.7 17.3 130.5 73.2 55.5 4.0 8.0 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 9.7 15.1 17.6 139.5 75.4 59.2 4.6 7.7 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 15.2 23.2 18.8 136.8 74.5 60.0 6.8 11.7 18.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 16.1 19.7 19.9 150.0 77.5 61.7 4.5 8.4 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 15.3 23.5 25.0 139.2 75.2 61.5 7.4 12.3 18.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 10.0 15.2 16.6 124.6 71.8 55.2 3.3 7.1 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 35.2 38.4 22.3 137.1 74.6 60.6 12.4 20.5 30.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 15.7 19.2 20.6 151.0 77.7 62.0 4.4 8.2 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 20.8 23.9 24.0 145.7 76.6 62.1 6.6 11.5 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 17.7 21.9 18.1 149.7 77.5 60.2 5.3 9.6 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 18.0 20.9 17.6 144.4 76.2 59.6 5.0 9.3 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 18.7 23.7 21.4 150.9 77.9 61.2 4.9 9.5 16.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 18.3 28.2 22.4 139.1 75.2 58.7 8.5 14.4 22.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 12.3 18.1 16.0 125.5 72.0 58.3 5.1 9.5 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 17.8 22.6 19.0 151.9 78.0 61.6 5.1 9.5 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.5 14.5 15.7 123.6 71.5 55.5 3.2 6.7 12.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 21.4 25.4 27.6 146.8 77.0 63.1 6.7 11.9 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 9.5 15.5 17.1 132.8 73.9 55.8 3.2 6.7 11.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 20.6 22.8 27.9 136.0 74.3 62.1 6.7 11.6 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 12.4 14.3 17.1 139.1 75.3 59.6 4.5 7.5 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 13.5 20.3 15.0 120.9 70.7 53.7 4.6 9.6 17.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.3 14.5 17.1 132.5 73.9 56.5 4.0 7.2 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 19.9 23.5 23.3 147.2 77.0 61.4 6.1 10.9 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 8.8 12.8 19.3 124.5 71.8 58.6 4.0 7.0 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 17.3 21.7 18.0 149.3 77.7 61.0 5.6 9.8 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 7.9 12.2 18.8 125.5 72.1 58.5 3.0 5.9 10.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 15.5 18.0 18.2 138.2 75.1 60.8 4.7 8.5 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 27.8 32.8 27.6 147.7 77.2 63.0 8.9 15.3 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 9.1 14.6 17.5 133.7 74.1 57.0 3.2 6.5 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------