***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2015.-31.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 56.2 77.1 71.9 132.2 76.5 62.3 37.8 50.4 64.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 51.4 66.1 68.9 125.0 72.9 61.1 34.2 45.8 58.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 54.7 75.9 71.1 129.8 75.7 62.4 35.5 48.5 63.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 86.9 93.3 83.5 127.1 74.5 62.0 52.7 67.2 83.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 76.4 84.2 81.4 127.4 74.5 62.3 40.3 55.2 72.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 65.0 77.3 100.6 119.7 70.8 60.9 46.6 58.8 72.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 50.1 63.8 68.3 120.4 70.4 59.4 30.4 43.3 58.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 106.9 120.1 83.2 115.0 67.4 60.1 81.3 99.1 118.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 67.8 74.1 79.9 126.4 73.6 62.0 36.5 49.9 64.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 70.7 84.3 89.3 119.8 70.2 61.5 50.1 64.3 79.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 65.1 69.5 73.4 125.0 73.2 61.9 38.4 49.8 62.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 57.5 68.7 68.2 119.2 69.8 60.3 39.4 51.6 65.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 61.4 63.1 81.2 120.6 71.2 60.7 36.8 47.3 58.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 76.6 99.2 87.0 125.2 73.7 62.2 51.0 68.1 87.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 57.9 58.5 75.5 121.1 70.8 59.3 34.7 44.5 54.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 65.4 68.6 77.1 124.0 73.0 61.5 41.2 51.6 62.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 52.2 66.3 65.7 119.3 69.9 58.8 30.7 44.7 61.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 82.8 84.9 100.9 119.5 70.3 62.4 53.0 66.2 80.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 62.5 81.8 68.4 128.0 74.6 61.8 42.6 56.0 71.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 78.8 75.9 101.5 112.1 65.9 59.6 51.4 63.3 75.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 52.5 69.9 72.3 129.7 75.1 61.7 35.5 47.2 60.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 58.5 73.1 64.3 120.9 71.0 59.0 37.7 51.5 67.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 53.6 72.7 69.1 128.5 75.0 61.9 34.2 46.9 61.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 82.3 87.8 87.7 124.3 73.1 62.7 49.8 64.0 79.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 58.3 76.9 87.0 128.5 75.4 61.9 38.9 51.6 66.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 62.4 62.5 71.0 117.8 69.9 60.1 36.0 47.0 59.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 58.6 78.8 83.7 129.9 76.0 62.6 39.5 52.5 67.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 52.2 62.5 79.3 124.0 72.6 60.8 37.5 47.1 57.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 91.0 102.9 101.0 118.2 69.6 61.8 71.6 85.2 99.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 53.8 72.8 70.3 128.2 74.8 62.4 34.7 47.5 62.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------