***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2020.-10.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 87 13 0 100 7.9 7.8 8.9 -2.2 18.2 20.2 8.9 9.9 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 86 14 0 100 8.1 7.8 8.6 -2.3 16.4 19.0 9.0 10.0 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 82 18 0 100 9.9 9.7 9.0 -2.1 19.0 21.3 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 79 21 0 100 4.6 4.5 6.1 -2.0 20.0 22.1 5.5 6.5 7.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 87 13 0 100 5.9 5.8 7.0 -2.1 17.8 20.1 7.1 8.2 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 83 17 0 100 5.4 5.3 4.3 -2.0 19.6 21.8 6.3 7.2 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 87 13 0 100 8.3 8.0 8.6 -2.3 16.2 18.7 9.1 10.0 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 87 13 0 100 0.3 0.0 4.2 -2.1 16.0 18.5 1.3 2.3 3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 81 19 0 100 7.3 7.3 7.5 -1.9 20.1 22.1 8.1 9.1 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 81 19 0 100 7.6 7.4 5.4 -1.9 18.7 21.0 8.3 9.2 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 86 14 0 100 7.0 7.0 6.8 -1.9 18.7 20.7 7.9 8.8 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 89 11 0 100 5.6 5.4 5.2 -2.3 15.3 18.0 6.5 7.3 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 85 15 0 100 6.6 6.4 5.6 -2.1 16.8 19.4 7.4 8.3 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 77 23 0 100 8.5 8.3 7.0 -1.9 19.7 22.2 9.1 9.8 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 8.8 8.8 8.5 -1.5 25.7 27.1 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 88 12 0 100 7.5 7.3 6.0 -2.2 16.5 18.9 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 84 16 0 100 8.8 8.5 8.3 -2.3 16.2 19.0 9.5 10.3 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 82 18 0 100 5.9 5.8 4.8 -1.9 19.7 22.1 6.5 7.3 8.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 86 14 0 100 8.4 8.2 8.6 -2.2 17.0 19.4 9.1 10.0 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 89 11 0 100 2.4 2.1 2.7 -2.2 15.2 18.2 3.2 4.1 4.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 81 19 0 100 7.3 7.2 8.5 -1.9 19.8 21.8 8.1 9.1 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 82 18 0 100 8.1 7.9 8.6 -2.0 18.0 20.5 8.8 9.6 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 88 12 0 100 8.2 8.0 8.4 -2.2 16.5 18.9 8.9 9.7 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 75 25 0 100 8.1 8.1 7.2 -1.7 21.5 23.8 8.6 9.3 10.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 94 6 0 100 7.3 7.0 7.6 -2.6 14.1 16.2 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 87 13 0 100 6.4 6.2 4.4 -2.3 16.4 19.0 7.2 8.1 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 89 11 0 100 7.3 7.0 8.3 -2.5 16.2 18.4 8.7 10.1 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 6.4 6.4 7.1 -1.7 24.2 26.1 7.0 8.0 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 87 13 0 100 4.6 4.4 3.8 -2.1 16.4 19.0 5.6 6.6 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 86 14 0 100 8.1 7.9 8.9 -2.2 17.3 19.7 9.0 10.0 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------