***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2020.-24.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 12.7 12.7 13.1 0.5 57.6 52.3 11.4 12.3 13.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.5 12.7 0.5 57.6 52.1 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 14.1 14.3 13.2 0.6 60.1 54.1 12.7 13.7 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 7.2 9.2 10.6 0.5 58.4 53.5 7.4 8.6 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 11.1 11.1 10.6 0.4 57.5 53.5 10.1 10.8 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.9 10.2 8.9 0.8 64.2 57.9 8.9 9.6 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 12.5 12.6 12.8 0.5 58.1 52.7 11.3 12.2 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 4.7 4.6 8.5 0.4 56.9 53.2 3.3 4.3 5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.0 12.0 10.8 0.4 58.0 53.8 10.9 11.7 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 11.7 11.8 9.2 0.4 57.5 53.6 10.7 11.4 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 10.5 11.7 10.0 0.4 57.5 53.8 10.6 11.3 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 9.8 9.8 9.3 0.4 58.1 54.1 8.6 9.4 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 11.1 11.2 8.8 0.5 58.9 54.7 10.2 10.8 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.6 12.4 10.5 0.2 54.2 51.2 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 12.8 13.1 12.0 0.7 62.5 56.4 11.7 12.5 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 10.7 12.2 9.6 0.5 59.0 54.8 10.9 11.8 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 12.8 12.8 12.5 0.4 56.7 51.3 11.6 12.4 13.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 10.3 10.3 8.5 0.4 57.6 53.7 9.3 10.0 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 12.6 12.6 12.8 0.4 57.5 52.2 11.4 12.3 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 6.4 6.3 6.3 0.3 55.2 52.0 5.4 6.1 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 12.0 12.0 12.2 0.4 57.7 53.2 10.9 11.7 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 12.0 11.9 12.2 0.4 56.0 51.0 10.9 11.7 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 12.2 12.2 12.6 0.4 57.1 52.3 11.1 11.9 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.9 12.0 10.5 0.5 59.2 54.3 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 12.4 12.3 11.5 0.3 54.8 50.8 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 9.5 10.7 8.7 0.6 60.2 55.4 9.6 10.3 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 12.8 12.7 12.4 0.4 56.7 51.9 11.3 12.4 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 9.8 11.1 11.0 0.7 61.7 56.1 9.9 10.7 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 8.9 8.8 7.8 0.3 55.5 52.3 7.4 8.5 9.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 12.8 12.9 13.0 0.5 58.5 52.8 11.5 12.4 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------