***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2020.-31.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 12.9 12.8 13.9 0.4 56.5 54.8 11.4 12.4 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 12.8 12.9 13.8 0.5 58.1 55.2 11.3 12.4 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 14.6 14.8 14.1 0.5 59.6 56.8 13.1 14.2 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 7.4 9.4 11.4 0.4 58.0 56.3 7.7 8.9 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 9.8 11.2 11.4 0.3 56.1 55.3 9.9 10.8 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 9.8 10.1 9.4 0.5 60.4 58.0 8.7 9.5 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 12.9 13.0 13.8 0.5 58.4 55.3 11.4 12.5 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 4.9 4.9 9.2 0.3 56.5 54.5 3.4 4.5 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 12.1 12.1 11.6 0.3 56.9 55.7 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 12.0 12.0 10.0 0.4 57.2 55.2 10.7 11.7 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.8 10.8 0.3 56.5 55.2 10.5 11.4 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.1 10.0 10.0 0.3 56.6 54.8 8.8 9.7 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 11.2 11.2 9.4 0.3 55.5 54.2 10.0 10.9 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.8 13.0 11.6 0.5 59.5 56.4 11.6 12.5 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 11.6 13.2 12.8 0.6 61.6 58.6 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.2 12.2 10.2 0.3 56.4 55.2 10.9 11.9 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 13.1 13.2 13.5 0.5 58.5 55.3 11.7 12.7 13.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.5 10.6 9.3 0.4 59.2 56.3 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 12.7 12.8 13.8 0.5 58.9 55.8 11.4 12.3 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 6.6 6.6 7.1 0.3 56.2 54.1 5.3 6.2 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.1 12.1 13.0 0.3 56.5 55.2 10.9 11.8 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 12.3 12.5 13.4 0.5 60.4 56.5 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 12.4 12.6 13.7 0.5 60.1 56.8 11.0 12.0 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 12.2 12.4 11.5 0.5 61.1 57.8 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 10.8 12.3 12.3 0.2 54.3 53.4 11.0 12.0 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 10.7 10.7 9.2 0.3 56.7 55.1 9.5 10.4 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 11.1 12.8 13.1 0.4 56.5 54.7 11.2 12.3 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 11.1 11.2 11.8 0.5 60.5 57.8 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 9.1 9.2 8.7 0.4 58.2 55.4 7.6 8.7 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 13.0 13.0 14.0 0.5 58.4 55.6 11.5 12.5 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------