***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2020.-31.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 10.7 11.4 12.2 -0.1 48.4 48.0 10.8 11.4 12.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 11.7 11.3 11.8 -0.2 45.3 46.3 10.9 11.5 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 12.4 13.2 12.3 0.0 50.8 50.0 12.5 13.1 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 7.2 8.1 9.6 0.1 51.8 50.5 7.4 8.1 8.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 9.2 9.9 10.0 0.0 49.3 49.1 9.4 9.9 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.9 9.0 7.9 0.3 58.8 55.4 8.2 8.7 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 10.9 11.4 11.9 -0.1 46.1 46.6 10.9 11.5 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 3.0 3.6 7.6 -0.1 48.0 47.7 3.1 3.7 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 10.1 10.8 10.2 0.0 49.7 49.5 10.3 10.8 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 10.1 10.7 8.5 0.0 49.9 49.6 10.2 10.7 11.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 9.9 10.5 9.5 0.0 49.3 49.1 10.0 10.5 10.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 8.1 8.7 8.5 0.0 48.7 48.2 8.2 8.7 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 10.2 10.0 8.3 0.0 51.5 50.3 9.5 10.0 10.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 10.8 11.3 9.9 -0.1 48.0 48.6 10.9 11.4 11.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 11.9 11.9 11.3 0.3 59.7 55.6 11.1 11.6 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 10.4 11.1 9.0 0.0 50.3 49.5 10.5 11.0 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 11.1 11.6 11.5 -0.2 43.9 45.3 11.2 11.7 12.3 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 8.4 9.1 7.8 0.1 51.9 51.1 8.5 9.0 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 11.7 11.4 11.9 -0.1 45.7 46.7 11.0 11.5 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 5.6 5.4 5.8 0.0 49.1 48.6 4.9 5.4 5.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 10.1 10.8 11.5 0.0 49.8 49.4 10.3 10.8 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 11.2 10.8 11.5 -0.2 45.1 46.4 10.5 11.0 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 10.5 11.0 11.7 -0.1 45.6 46.7 10.6 11.1 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 10.2 10.9 9.9 0.1 53.1 51.9 10.3 10.8 11.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 10.4 10.9 10.9 -0.2 43.6 44.6 10.6 11.1 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.8 9.7 7.9 0.1 53.9 51.9 9.1 9.6 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 10.8 11.5 11.6 -0.1 46.9 47.0 10.9 11.6 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 9.1 10.0 10.3 0.3 58.6 55.0 9.2 9.7 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 7.2 7.8 7.0 -0.1 47.7 47.7 7.3 7.9 8.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 11.8 11.5 12.1 -0.1 47.2 47.5 11.0 11.6 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------