***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2020.-10.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 22.8 20.7 18.9 -1.3 32.8 35.4 20.7 22.2 23.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 20.3 20.4 18.9 -1.6 30.5 33.0 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 20.5 20.5 18.7 -1.7 29.2 32.1 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 13.3 13.4 15.4 -1.4 31.3 34.1 13.5 14.9 16.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 20.2 20.1 16.4 -2.1 25.1 28.4 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 18.3 18.1 13.7 -2.4 22.6 25.9 19.1 20.6 22.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 20.1 20.2 18.7 -1.6 30.0 32.6 20.4 21.8 23.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 7.6 7.4 14.0 -2.4 23.1 26.0 8.3 9.8 11.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 19.8 19.8 17.5 -1.9 27.4 30.5 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 19.7 19.6 15.3 -2.2 25.4 28.4 20.3 21.6 22.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 19.7 19.5 16.6 -2.4 23.0 26.3 20.5 21.9 23.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 18.5 18.4 15.0 -2.5 22.0 24.9 19.4 20.8 22.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 81 19 0 100 19.1 18.9 15.7 -2.8 19.1 22.4 20.3 21.7 23.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 20.3 20.4 17.4 -1.6 30.4 33.1 20.6 21.9 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 22.6 20.9 18.6 -1.2 35.0 37.0 20.7 22.1 23.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 72 28 0 100 20.0 19.7 15.8 -2.6 21.0 24.4 20.9 22.3 23.6 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 19.5 19.7 18.3 -1.7 29.2 31.8 20.0 21.3 22.6 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 19.1 19.0 14.3 -2.2 25.3 28.4 19.7 21.0 22.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 19.9 20.0 18.8 -1.7 30.0 32.5 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 14.0 13.7 12.0 -2.5 22.3 25.3 14.8 16.2 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 20.0 20.0 18.2 -1.9 26.7 29.9 20.5 21.9 23.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 20.1 20.3 18.4 -1.6 30.0 32.6 20.5 21.9 23.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 20.3 20.4 18.7 -1.7 29.4 32.0 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 19.9 19.9 17.1 -1.8 28.5 31.3 20.2 21.6 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 20.1 20.1 17.2 -1.8 27.5 30.6 20.6 21.9 23.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 75 25 0 100 18.7 18.4 14.1 -2.7 20.2 23.3 19.6 21.0 22.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 20.2 20.3 18.1 -1.5 30.1 32.9 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 20.4 20.5 16.6 -1.5 31.2 33.8 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 13.9 13.7 13.5 -2.3 23.8 26.9 14.6 16.0 17.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 20.2 20.3 19.0 -1.5 31.2 33.7 20.5 21.9 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------