***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2020.-17.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 25.1 26.2 24.1 2.6 80.2 69.5 22.2 23.5 24.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 25.3 25.5 23.3 1.7 70.7 63.1 22.4 23.8 25.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 25.4 26.4 24.3 2.6 79.2 69.3 22.4 23.8 25.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 18.1 19.7 21.8 3.2 86.3 74.7 15.0 16.4 17.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 25.5 26.9 22.8 3.0 83.5 73.6 22.5 23.9 25.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 24.2 26.3 21.6 4.2 90.9 81.7 21.2 22.4 23.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 24.8 25.0 23.2 1.7 71.7 63.7 21.9 23.3 24.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 13.4 14.5 21.1 3.2 83.5 75.3 10.4 11.7 12.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 24.9 26.2 23.5 3.0 82.9 73.4 21.9 23.3 24.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 24.7 25.9 22.0 3.3 84.2 75.0 21.7 23.0 24.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 25.0 26.2 23.2 3.2 83.6 74.4 22.1 23.4 24.6 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 24.3 25.3 22.2 3.2 83.5 75.2 21.4 22.6 23.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 25.3 26.5 22.5 3.3 84.5 75.8 22.4 23.6 24.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 25.2 25.8 22.3 2.2 75.3 67.2 22.3 23.6 24.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 25.4 27.2 24.0 3.3 87.5 75.3 22.4 23.7 25.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 26.0 27.4 22.7 3.4 85.2 75.8 22.8 24.2 25.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 23.4 24.2 22.6 1.3 66.4 60.3 21.5 22.9 24.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 24.3 25.4 21.1 3.1 82.4 73.7 21.5 22.7 23.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 24.7 25.0 23.4 1.8 71.2 63.6 22.0 23.3 24.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 19.5 20.6 18.6 2.9 81.6 74.1 16.5 17.8 19.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 25.0 26.2 24.0 2.8 80.9 71.2 22.1 23.5 24.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 24.1 24.8 22.4 1.2 65.1 59.7 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 25.2 25.6 23.6 2.0 72.9 65.1 22.3 23.7 25.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 24.6 25.7 22.9 2.9 81.0 71.7 21.8 23.1 24.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 25.0 26.1 22.6 2.5 80.5 70.0 22.2 23.5 24.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 21 79 100 24.7 26.0 21.9 3.6 86.1 77.8 21.7 23.0 24.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 24.8 25.8 23.3 2.5 79.7 69.2 22.0 23.3 24.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 25.5 27.4 23.0 3.6 88.6 77.2 22.3 23.7 25.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 19.4 20.3 20.0 2.8 80.4 72.6 16.4 17.8 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 25.1 25.6 23.7 2.0 74.2 65.6 22.2 23.5 24.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------