***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2020.-24.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 25.0 24.9 23.5 1.5 67.0 60.0 21.6 23.2 24.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 22.0 25.0 23.3 1.2 64.1 57.8 22.3 23.8 25.1 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 21.9 25.3 23.7 1.5 66.6 59.7 22.2 23.7 25.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 14.5 18.3 21.3 1.5 67.2 60.5 14.8 16.5 18.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 22.0 25.5 21.6 1.3 64.7 58.9 22.3 24.0 25.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 24.2 23.8 19.4 1.3 64.2 58.8 21.0 22.5 24.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 21.8 24.7 23.2 1.3 64.6 58.1 22.1 23.5 24.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 10.5 13.3 19.8 1.1 61.8 57.0 10.7 12.2 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 21.3 24.8 21.9 1.4 65.3 59.2 21.7 23.3 24.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 21.5 24.8 20.6 1.3 64.3 58.7 21.8 23.4 25.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 21.6 24.9 21.5 1.2 63.5 58.4 21.9 23.6 25.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 20.8 23.7 21.1 1.1 62.2 57.3 21.1 22.6 24.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 22.0 24.9 20.3 1.1 62.1 57.5 22.3 23.8 25.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 21.8 25.0 21.4 1.2 63.4 57.4 22.1 23.7 25.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 25.9 26.0 22.6 1.7 70.1 62.4 22.8 24.3 25.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 22.3 25.6 21.0 1.3 64.3 58.9 22.6 24.2 25.8 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 21.6 24.3 22.9 1.1 62.9 56.7 21.8 23.2 24.5 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 21.1 24.3 20.0 1.3 64.4 58.6 21.4 23.0 24.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 21.6 24.5 23.4 1.3 64.0 57.8 21.8 23.3 24.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 16.4 19.1 17.1 0.9 60.3 55.7 16.7 18.2 19.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 21.7 25.1 22.8 1.4 65.5 59.2 21.9 23.6 25.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 24.2 24.7 22.7 1.1 62.9 56.6 22.2 23.6 25.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 21.9 24.9 23.3 1.3 64.0 57.8 22.2 23.7 25.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 21.2 24.6 21.7 1.5 66.3 59.6 21.6 23.1 24.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 24.3 25.2 21.7 1.4 66.3 59.7 21.9 23.6 25.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 23.7 24.2 20.5 1.2 62.6 57.8 21.7 23.1 24.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 25.1 25.0 22.7 1.5 67.0 60.0 21.9 23.4 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 26.0 26.0 21.7 1.6 68.6 61.5 22.6 24.2 25.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 16.1 19.2 18.8 1.1 61.6 56.7 16.5 18.1 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 21.8 25.0 23.4 1.3 65.2 58.6 22.1 23.6 25.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------