***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2020.-31.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 23.7 24.5 22.7 1.0 69.8 63.2 22.4 23.4 24.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 24.0 24.2 22.4 0.6 61.3 57.2 22.6 23.6 24.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 23.9 24.6 22.9 0.9 67.7 61.6 22.7 23.6 24.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 17.1 17.4 20.1 1.1 72.7 65.0 15.4 16.2 17.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 24.1 24.6 20.8 0.8 66.4 60.7 22.8 23.7 24.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 22.5 23.1 18.6 1.0 69.4 62.6 21.3 22.1 22.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 23.6 23.8 22.4 0.6 62.1 57.8 22.3 23.2 24.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 11.8 12.2 18.8 0.7 62.9 58.1 10.6 11.5 12.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 23.5 24.1 21.4 0.9 68.0 62.0 22.2 23.1 24.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 23.3 23.8 19.8 0.9 66.9 61.0 22.2 23.0 23.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 23.6 23.9 20.8 0.7 64.2 59.2 22.4 23.2 24.0 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 22.6 22.9 20.1 0.7 62.4 57.9 21.5 22.3 23.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 23.7 23.9 19.9 0.6 61.2 57.0 22.5 23.4 24.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 23.8 24.2 20.9 0.7 64.8 59.2 22.5 23.4 24.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 24.6 25.1 22.1 1.4 75.9 68.0 23.0 23.8 24.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 24.2 24.6 20.3 0.7 64.6 59.3 23.0 23.9 24.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 23.3 23.3 22.0 0.4 57.7 54.7 22.0 22.9 23.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 22.9 23.3 19.1 0.8 66.5 60.4 21.7 22.5 23.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 23.5 23.7 22.5 0.6 61.4 57.3 22.2 23.1 24.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 18.0 18.2 16.4 0.5 60.6 56.4 16.8 17.7 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 23.7 24.3 22.2 0.8 67.0 61.1 22.4 23.4 24.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 23.8 23.8 21.8 0.4 57.8 54.9 22.5 23.4 24.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 23.8 24.2 22.5 0.6 62.6 58.1 22.6 23.5 24.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 23.2 23.9 21.1 0.9 69.0 62.2 22.1 22.9 23.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 23.8 24.4 21.0 0.8 67.7 61.3 22.5 23.4 24.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 23.0 23.3 19.4 0.7 62.7 58.0 21.9 22.7 23.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 23.5 24.2 21.9 0.9 68.7 62.2 22.3 23.2 24.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 24.6 24.9 20.9 1.3 74.6 66.6 22.9 23.7 24.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 18.0 18.2 18.0 0.6 62.2 57.4 16.7 17.6 18.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 23.8 24.2 22.6 0.7 64.4 59.5 22.5 23.4 24.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------