***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2020.-17.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 4.2 9.1 15.8 85.8 55.8 45.0 3.8 7.4 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.9 9.8 16.9 99.7 62.0 48.4 3.7 6.8 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 4.1 8.8 15.1 80.0 52.8 43.4 3.9 7.9 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.8 11.7 16.3 80.6 53.8 43.8 5.6 10.5 17.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 3.9 7.7 14.2 72.6 48.7 39.9 3.9 7.9 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 3.9 7.3 15.5 75.2 48.2 39.1 4.2 7.6 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 3.4 9.0 16.0 94.5 59.8 46.8 2.9 6.2 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 8.6 13.1 13.0 63.9 44.4 36.3 9.2 15.4 23.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 3.2 5.7 13.7 67.4 44.9 36.5 3.3 6.9 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 4.8 8.2 13.3 62.7 44.3 35.7 5.3 10.0 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.9 7.0 14.5 75.3 49.8 41.6 3.9 7.2 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 4.1 6.7 12.2 66.9 46.0 36.9 4.4 7.6 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 3.1 5.6 14.5 73.0 48.8 39.4 3.2 5.8 9.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 5.4 10.1 17.9 76.9 50.4 42.9 5.2 10.0 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 3.7 6.7 13.7 73.1 50.9 41.1 3.7 6.5 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 4.2 7.1 13.7 70.1 46.6 38.0 4.4 8.0 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 3.8 11.9 17.3 105.6 64.4 50.1 3.4 7.0 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 5.9 9.3 13.9 61.3 41.3 34.0 6.9 12.2 19.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 4.4 11.5 16.8 95.9 60.4 47.9 4.0 8.0 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 5.7 9.2 14.4 64.4 42.2 34.6 6.6 11.7 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.4 6.9 15.0 78.0 51.5 41.5 3.2 6.5 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 4.9 14.1 17.6 102.8 63.5 50.1 4.4 8.9 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.8 9.0 16.2 88.5 57.1 46.6 3.6 7.1 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 5.8 9.2 14.7 68.3 45.5 38.6 6.1 10.7 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 4.7 9.9 17.9 86.0 54.9 44.9 4.5 8.4 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 3.4 7.3 13.8 78.2 51.6 39.3 3.3 6.9 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 4.2 8.8 16.7 83.7 54.0 44.7 3.6 7.5 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 3.3 6.1 13.4 70.3 49.4 40.3 3.4 6.2 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 7.2 11.3 15.0 65.3 43.3 36.2 8.0 13.8 21.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 4.3 10.1 15.8 90.4 58.2 46.9 3.8 7.6 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------