***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2020.-24.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 8.1 13.5 11.1 63.7 46.0 35.4 8.8 15.2 23.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 5.9 9.8 9.5 61.9 45.9 35.3 6.7 10.9 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 8.4 14.1 11.8 69.4 48.7 36.9 9.2 14.6 21.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 7.9 13.4 13.4 69.9 48.6 38.7 8.1 13.9 21.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 8.3 16.4 14.4 79.1 53.6 39.7 8.1 14.8 23.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 7.0 12.3 17.6 81.8 52.8 43.9 6.4 11.5 18.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 5.4 8.8 9.4 59.6 43.6 33.3 6.3 10.5 16.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 11.5 19.2 15.6 76.8 50.1 38.2 11.2 19.2 29.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 5.6 12.6 15.8 82.0 54.3 38.5 6.2 11.0 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 9.2 16.5 17.2 80.0 52.0 38.3 9.7 15.7 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 5.4 10.5 13.6 80.0 53.7 40.2 4.9 9.2 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 6.6 11.0 12.8 73.7 49.9 37.6 6.5 11.0 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 12.8 10.9 16.0 81.7 53.5 42.3 5.6 9.8 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 8.1 15.8 18.1 80.7 52.5 39.9 8.5 14.7 23.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 4.6 7.9 11.3 63.7 47.4 37.7 4.7 8.7 14.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 13.9 11.7 14.4 78.8 52.9 41.0 6.1 10.7 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 4.8 8.2 9.0 60.5 44.0 33.2 5.9 9.5 14.2 29 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 7.3 13.4 19.2 81.2 51.5 37.4 7.9 12.9 19.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 7.0 12.7 10.5 67.0 48.8 37.0 7.8 13.3 20.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 8.4 13.7 17.9 78.0 49.9 37.7 9.0 13.7 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 6.7 13.1 13.6 74.7 51.9 38.6 7.1 12.3 19.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 6.9 10.6 10.7 68.9 49.1 38.2 7.4 10.8 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 6.6 12.1 12.1 75.3 52.5 38.3 7.0 11.4 16.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 8.4 16.0 17.1 81.6 53.0 38.8 8.8 14.8 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 6.3 11.6 13.5 67.3 47.8 37.1 6.9 12.3 19.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 5.2 9.2 13.4 76.5 52.2 40.2 4.8 8.6 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 8.1 13.2 12.1 63.5 45.6 35.3 9.0 14.9 23.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 6.6 11.3 13.2 70.8 49.7 39.3 6.9 11.3 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 10.8 19.3 19.2 80.5 51.2 38.2 11.4 18.7 28.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 7.3 12.1 10.0 62.7 46.3 35.8 8.4 13.2 19.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------