***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2020.-31.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 3.2 5.3 11.6 61.5 45.5 36.9 3.2 6.2 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 4.4 6.8 9.8 61.3 45.4 36.7 4.0 8.0 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 4.6 6.9 11.5 62.9 45.8 37.2 4.6 7.7 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 6.4 11.9 14.8 72.9 50.6 38.7 6.8 11.7 18.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 4.6 9.4 14.7 77.1 53.6 41.3 4.5 8.4 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 7.2 13.3 18.4 81.5 53.1 41.9 7.4 12.3 18.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.8 5.7 9.7 58.7 44.6 36.5 3.3 7.1 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 12.2 22.0 16.9 79.2 52.7 42.6 12.4 20.5 30.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 4.5 8.9 15.2 75.5 52.7 42.0 4.4 8.2 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 6.6 11.9 17.5 75.8 51.2 42.2 6.6 11.5 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 5.3 11.7 14.9 83.3 56.4 43.4 5.3 9.6 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 5.2 11.7 15.0 85.4 57.3 43.4 5.0 9.3 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 5.1 12.0 16.6 85.1 56.8 43.2 4.9 9.5 16.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 8.6 13.1 16.1 66.9 46.7 38.6 8.5 14.4 22.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 4.8 9.0 12.0 64.8 48.4 36.0 5.1 9.5 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 5.2 11.7 15.8 84.0 56.5 42.3 5.1 9.5 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.6 5.7 9.5 60.2 45.9 37.1 3.2 6.7 12.0 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 6.9 11.2 18.1 71.7 47.9 41.1 6.7 11.9 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 3.5 5.8 10.6 64.5 46.7 37.3 3.2 6.7 11.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 6.2 11.1 17.8 75.8 48.4 40.7 6.7 11.6 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.5 7.4 13.2 69.3 49.7 39.8 4.5 7.5 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 4.8 8.3 10.6 62.6 45.9 36.3 4.6 9.6 17.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 4.0 6.8 11.8 68.0 48.3 38.5 4.0 7.2 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 6.7 10.0 15.2 67.1 47.2 39.6 6.1 10.9 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 3.9 6.8 14.3 68.9 49.3 39.1 4.0 7.0 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 5.4 12.1 14.4 84.2 57.0 41.9 5.6 9.8 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 3.1 5.3 13.0 63.9 47.0 37.6 3.0 5.9 10.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 4.3 8.8 14.6 72.5 51.1 38.3 4.7 8.5 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 9.1 14.5 18.0 72.8 48.1 41.3 8.9 15.3 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 3.4 5.2 10.1 59.3 43.9 35.8 3.2 6.5 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------