***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2020.-31.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 34.0 36.9 51.4 70.2 31.5 31.3 37.8 50.4 64.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 31.8 36.0 47.7 73.4 35.6 34.0 34.2 45.8 58.9 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 31.0 33.7 51.1 70.6 30.8 31.3 35.5 48.5 63.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 46.7 48.8 57.0 70.3 28.3 29.3 52.7 67.2 83.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 35.8 41.0 57.7 75.0 33.7 32.7 40.3 55.2 72.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 43.1 47.7 67.5 79.5 34.6 35.1 46.6 58.8 72.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 25.8 30.0 46.0 70.2 32.7 31.4 30.4 43.3 58.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 75.6 81.7 64.9 76.6 33.3 33.7 81.3 99.1 118.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 32.3 37.1 59.8 74.9 33.6 32.4 36.5 49.9 64.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 44.8 49.5 67.5 75.2 32.3 32.4 50.1 64.3 79.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 36.2 41.6 58.4 79.2 37.6 36.1 38.4 49.8 62.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 37.2 41.9 56.2 78.5 36.6 36.2 39.4 51.6 65.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 35.9 41.7 64.8 83.3 41.1 39.7 36.8 47.3 58.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 48.3 51.4 72.1 77.6 33.6 34.2 51.0 68.1 87.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 30.9 30.2 45.6 62.5 24.7 26.1 34.7 44.5 54.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 39.5 44.2 59.7 79.7 37.8 36.6 41.2 51.6 62.7 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 28.6 32.7 46.5 72.5 35.5 33.5 30.7 44.7 61.1 29 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 47.5 51.4 71.9 75.6 31.0 31.9 53.0 66.2 80.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 40.0 44.7 49.9 75.0 36.0 34.9 42.6 56.0 71.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 46.1 52.2 72.7 79.5 34.0 34.5 51.4 63.3 75.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 31.7 35.2 55.4 73.0 32.7 32.0 35.5 47.2 60.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 36.0 41.3 51.2 77.1 37.6 35.8 37.7 51.5 67.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 31.9 36.1 53.4 76.4 35.8 35.3 34.2 46.9 61.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 44.5 48.2 64.4 74.4 31.2 31.8 49.8 64.0 79.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 34.5 37.1 58.9 71.2 30.6 30.3 38.9 51.6 66.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 34.8 41.1 56.9 82.5 41.2 39.6 36.0 47.0 59.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 35.6 37.0 54.6 69.0 29.9 29.8 39.5 52.5 67.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 34.2 35.0 53.3 68.5 28.3 29.2 37.5 47.1 57.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 65.3 71.3 73.5 77.8 32.8 33.3 71.6 85.2 99.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 31.4 34.7 47.6 71.1 33.0 32.2 34.7 47.5 62.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------