***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.05.2014.-11.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 8.5 8.6 9.6 -1.5 26.1 28.0 9.1 10.1 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 8.7 8.7 9.4 -1.5 24.1 26.0 9.3 10.2 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 74 26 0 100 10.1 10.1 9.3 -1.6 22.8 24.9 10.8 11.8 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 84 16 0 100 4.6 4.2 6.4 -2.1 16.7 19.2 5.6 6.8 7.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 85 15 0 100 6.3 6.1 6.9 -2.0 17.6 20.1 7.3 8.4 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 5.9 5.8 5.1 -1.6 22.3 24.9 6.5 7.4 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 8.7 8.7 9.4 -1.6 23.6 25.6 9.3 10.2 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 0.9 1.0 5.3 -1.4 26.2 28.2 1.4 2.4 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 80 20 0 100 7.6 7.6 7.7 -1.7 21.0 23.3 8.3 9.2 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 78 22 0 100 7.8 7.8 6.0 -1.5 22.9 25.0 8.4 9.2 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 80 20 0 100 7.4 7.3 6.6 -1.7 20.8 23.1 8.0 8.9 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 6.1 6.1 5.9 -1.5 23.8 26.2 6.6 7.4 8.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 78 22 0 100 7.1 6.8 5.5 -1.9 16.8 19.9 7.7 8.5 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 82 18 0 100 8.5 8.4 7.4 -1.8 18.4 20.8 9.1 9.9 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 84 16 0 100 8.8 8.6 7.8 -2.1 16.6 19.2 9.5 10.3 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 7.9 7.5 6.1 -1.9 17.3 20.3 8.7 9.7 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 9.2 9.2 9.1 -1.4 24.7 26.6 9.7 10.5 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 80 20 0 100 6.1 6.0 5.0 -1.7 19.7 22.1 6.7 7.4 8.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 72 28 0 100 8.8 8.8 9.3 -1.5 23.8 25.6 9.3 10.2 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 72 28 0 100 3.0 2.9 3.1 -1.5 22.6 24.8 3.5 4.3 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 79 21 0 100 7.7 7.6 8.8 -1.7 21.4 23.6 8.4 9.3 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 78 22 0 100 8.4 8.5 9.1 -1.5 23.6 25.2 9.0 9.7 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 75 25 0 100 8.5 8.5 9.0 -1.6 22.1 23.9 9.0 9.8 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 78 22 0 100 8.2 8.1 7.2 -1.7 20.0 22.4 8.8 9.5 10.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 80 20 0 100 7.9 7.9 8.1 -1.8 21.7 23.8 8.7 9.7 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 86 14 0 100 6.6 6.1 4.8 -2.2 14.3 17.4 7.4 8.2 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 8.2 8.3 8.8 -1.7 23.8 25.8 9.1 10.3 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 82 18 0 100 6.6 6.2 6.9 -2.1 15.7 18.6 7.3 8.2 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 5.0 5.0 4.6 -1.5 22.0 24.4 5.7 6.8 7.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 8.7 8.7 9.5 -1.6 23.8 25.7 9.3 10.2 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------